Game Analysis
IOWA STATE (+1) 21 Iowa 20
Iowa has been dominant so far, beating Miami-Ohio and Rutgers by an average score of 34-7, while Iowa State needed overtime to beat FCS team Northern Iowa two weeks ago before having last week off. That early season bye should be beneficial, as teams playing their second game of the season off a win and a bye are 114-77-7 ATS (if not facing a team in the same situation).
I don’t expect Iowa State to be as good offensively without NFL receiver Hakeem Butler, who averaged 12.2 yards per target for the Cyclones last season, but sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy should still be very good throwing the ball (although unlikely to come close to last season’s 8.8 yards per pass play without Butler). Iowa is strong defensively an improved on offense and my ratings favor the Hawkeyes by 2 points in this game. However, Iowa State applies to a 94-33-2 ATS non-conference revenge situation and I’ll lean with the Cyclones based on that.
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.4
29.9
-
Run Yards
146.2
120.5
-
YPRP
4.5
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.3
17.5
-
Pass Att
33.1
31.2
-
Comp %
58.4%
56.0%
-
Pass Yards
227.9
185.0
-
Sacks
1.3
2.3
-
Sack Yards
8.7
14.5
-
Sack %
3.9%
6.9%
-
Pass Plays
34.4
33.6
-
Net Pass Yards
219.2
170.5
-
YPPP
6.4
5.1
Total
-
Total Plays
68.8
63.5
-
Total Yards
374.1
305.5
-
YPPL
5.4
4.8
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.9
-
Int %
2.0%
6.0%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.2
2.4
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.8
31.3
-
Run Yards
152.6
115.3
-
YPRP
5.0
4.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.5
22.8
-
Pass Att
27.4
35.7
-
Comp %
64.0%
63.8%
-
Pass Yards
240.3
233.1
-
Sacks
2.4
2.9
-
Sack Yards
15.3
22.5
-
Sack %
8.1%
7.4%
-
Pass Plays
29.8
38.5
-
Net Pass Yards
225.0
210.6
-
YPPP
7.6
5.5
Total
-
Total Plays
63.5
69.8
-
Total Yards
392.8
348.3
-
YPPL
6.2
5.0
TO
-
Int
0.7
0.6
-
Int %
2.7%
1.8%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/06/18 @ Minnesota |
48-31 |
-7.0
W
|
38/26 |
111/117 |
2.9/4.5 |
1/0 |
23/18 |
39/35 |
307/203 |
1/4 |
1/5 |
7.7/5.1 |
418/320 |
5.4/4.8 |
| 10/13/18 @ Indiana |
42-16 |
-4.0
W
|
31/22 |
164/85 |
5.3/3.9 |
0/0 |
21/31 |
33/42 |
315/245 |
1/2 |
1/3 |
9.3/5.4 |
479/330 |
7.4/4.9 |
| 10/20/18 Maryland |
23-0 |
-10.0
W
|
52/21 |
224/91 |
4.3/4.3 |
0/1 |
11/6 |
23/16 |
86/34 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
3.7/1.9 |
310/125 |
4.1/3.2 |
| 10/27/18 @ Penn St. |
24-30 |
+6.5
W
|
33/31 |
161/158 |
4.9/5.1 |
0/1 |
18/13 |
49/29 |
184/179 |
2/1 |
3/3 |
3.5/5.6 |
345/337 |
4.1/5.3 |
| 11/03/18 @ Purdue |
36-38 |
+3.0
W
|
35/30 |
129/102 |
3.7/3.4 |
1/0 |
21/23 |
32/32 |
268/332 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
8.1/10.1 |
397/434 |
5.8/6.9 |
| 11/10/18 Northwestern |
10-14 |
-10.0
L
|
21/41 |
65/204 |
3.1/5.0 |
2/0 |
27/15 |
41/30 |
265/109 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
6.3/3.4 |
330/313 |
5.2/4.3 |
| 11/17/18 @ Illinois |
63-0 |
-14.0
W
|
35/40 |
213/177 |
6.1/4.4 |
0/1 |
14/12 |
23/30 |
187/58 |
1/3 |
2/3 |
7.5/1.8 |
400/235 |
6.7/3.2 |
| 11/23/18 Nebraska |
31-28 |
-8.0
L
|
45/30 |
266/158 |
5.9/5.3 |
0/0 |
16/26 |
27/38 |
152/242 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
5.6/5.9 |
418/400 |
5.8/5.6 |
| 01/01/19 Mississippi St. |
27-22 |
+7.0
W
|
16/41 |
7/196 |
0.4/4.8 |
1/1 |
21/14 |
31/32 |
193/145 |
1/2 |
3/1 |
5.7/4.4 |
200/341 |
4.0/4.6 |
| 08/31/19 Miami Ohio |
38-14 |
-22.0
W
|
40/24 |
231/70 |
5.8/2.9 |
1/0 |
21/17 |
30/27 |
242/175 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
7.8/6.3 |
473/245 |
6.7/4.7 |
| 09/07/19 Rutgers |
30-0 |
-19.5
W
|
38/22 |
199/93 |
5.2/4.2 |
0/1 |
19/9 |
34/26 |
270/32 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
7.7/1.2 |
469/125 |
6.4/2.6 |
| 09/14/19 @ Iowa St. |
18-17 |
-1.0
T
|
32/18 |
143/97 |
4.5/5.4 |
0/2 |
22/25 |
35/35 |
178/279 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
4.8/7.8 |
321/376 |
4.7/7.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/29/18 @ TCU |
14-17 |
+10.5
W
|
25/44 |
136/148 |
5.4/3.4 |
1/2 |
14/21 |
28/29 |
66/172 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
2.2/5.7 |
202/320 |
3.7/4.3 |
| 10/06/18 @ Oklahoma St. |
48-42 |
+9.5
W
|
34/34 |
165/178 |
4.9/5.2 |
1/1 |
19/19 |
25/33 |
309/244 |
1/1 |
4/7 |
10.7/6.1 |
474/422 |
7.5/5.7 |
| 10/13/18 West Virginia |
30-14 |
+6.5
W
|
45/20 |
256/112 |
5.7/5.6 |
0/0 |
18/11 |
25/15 |
254/40 |
1/1 |
0/7 |
10.2/1.8 |
510/152 |
7.3/3.6 |
| 10/27/18 Texas Tech |
40-31 |
-4.0
W
|
47/22 |
196/55 |
4.2/2.5 |
1/0 |
13/33 |
27/57 |
231/308 |
0/3 |
3/2 |
7.7/5.2 |
427/363 |
5.5/4.5 |
| 11/03/18 @ Kansas |
27-3 |
-14.5
W
|
35/39 |
147/160 |
4.2/4.1 |
0/1 |
17/19 |
24/42 |
247/155 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
9.1/3.6 |
394/315 |
6.4/3.8 |
| 11/10/18 Baylor |
28-14 |
-14.5
L
|
29/31 |
135/154 |
4.7/5.0 |
0/0 |
18/29 |
23/48 |
220/351 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
9.2/7.2 |
355/505 |
6.7/6.3 |
| 11/17/18 @ Texas |
10-24 |
+2.5
L
|
24/41 |
104/219 |
4.3/5.3 |
1/1 |
13/22 |
29/25 |
110/198 |
1/0 |
6/3 |
3.1/7.1 |
214/417 |
3.6/6.0 |
| 11/24/18 Kansas St. |
42-38 |
-12.0
L
|
29/44 |
188/269 |
6.5/6.1 |
1/1 |
20/18 |
27/27 |
333/160 |
2/0 |
1/3 |
11.9/5.3 |
521/429 |
9.1/5.8 |
| 12/01/18 Drake |
27-24 |
0.0
W
|
37/27 |
158/80 |
4.3/3.0 |
1/0 |
15/20 |
28/29 |
135/204 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
4.5/6.6 |
293/284 |
4.4/4.9 |
| 12/28/18 @ Washington St. |
26-28 |
+2.5
W
|
36/12 |
215/47 |
6.0/3.9 |
1/1 |
18/35 |
27/49 |
300/286 |
2/0 |
3/2 |
10.0/5.6 |
515/333 |
7.8/5.3 |
| 08/31/19 Northern Iowa |
29-26 |
0.0
W
|
43/28 |
196/44 |
4.6/1.6 |
1/0 |
30/25 |
41/42 |
260/218 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
6.0/4.8 |
456/262 |
5.3/3.6 |
| 09/14/19 Iowa |
17-18 |
+1.0
T
|
18/32 |
97/143 |
5.4/4.5 |
2/0 |
25/22 |
35/35 |
279/178 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
7.8/4.8 |
376/321 |
7.0/4.7 |
Iowa St.