Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Illinois (-14)  30   NORTHWESTERN  9

Based on some quotes from Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald it appears as if #3 quarterback Cole Freeman will make his second consecutive start and he’s likely to struggle even more this week than he did last week against a mediocre Purdue pass defense, against whom Freeman averaged only 2.9 yards per pass play. Illinois has one of the best secondaries in the nation as the Illini have yielded just 4.7 yards per pass play while picking off 17 passes. Illinois is also tough to run against (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average defense) and the Wildcats are bad running team (just 3.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp).

Northwestern has averaged only 10 points in 7 Big 10 games this season while scoring 9 points or fewer in 5 of those 7 games. The Wildcats could get shutout in this game but the math model is calling for 9 points (and just 12 points if Hilinski or Sullivan were able to play).

Northwestern’s defense is just average on a national scale if you toss out their game against Ohio State that was played in a mini-tornado and Illinois moves the ball at a slightly better than average clip on a national scale (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). The Illini are only projected to average 5.7 yppl in the 12 mph winds that are expected but they’ll be enjoying great field position given to them by their defense and quarterback Tommy DeVito isn’t likely to give the Wildcats any short fields given that he’s extremely careful with the football and has thrown just 3 interceptions all season. Illinois should score more than enough to win by more than two touchdowns given how dominating their defense is likely to be in this game.

Illinois is a 1-Star Best Bet at -14 -115 odds or better. I may raise the line constraint if it is confirmed that the Freeman will be starting at QB for Northwestern in this game.