Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Illinois (+3)  26   MINNESOTA  21

Illinois is better on both sides of the ball and they’ve been worse on the scoreboard than projected because of some negative 3rd-down conversion variance that is likely to regress towards expectations.

The Illini have outgained their opponents 5.5 yards per play to 5.4 yppl yet they have a randomly bad -12.4% 3rd-down conversion differential, with the defense given up 46.3% conversions despite being a better than average unit. Minnesota is negative in 3rd-down differential, at -7.0%, but the Gophers make up for most of that by having converted on 9 of 10 4th downs.

Illinois is nothing special, as they have been just 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average on defense. However, Minnesota has been 0.5 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively this season while being outgained 4.9 yppl to 5.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that is a bit worse collectively than the schedule Illinois has faced (and outgained by 0.1 yppl).

Not only should Illinois be the better team going forward but Minnesota applies to a 34-97-2 ATS situation. The math model gives Illinois at 59.3% chance to cover at +3 (based on the historical performance of the math model). That would make the Illini a 55.3% play at +2.5 and 54.1% at +2, which doesn’t include a little boost for the situation.

Illinois is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 or better and 1-Star down to +2.