Game Analysis

Lean – UCF (+1)  27   Houston  23

UCF was horrible last week but I see value on the Golden Knights in this game.

UCF has been 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively with Tayven Jackson at quarterback while Houston has been just 0.1 yppl better than average defensively. The Cougars are also 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.9 yppl with QB Weigman in the game against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) but UCF has an underrated defense that’s allowed just 20.4 points per game and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average after accounting for opponents faced.

UCF has clearly been the better team from the line of scrimmage and Houston’s advantages in special teams and projected turnovers (+0.8 points) is not enough to make up that difference from the line of scrimmage (UCF projected to have 62 more total yards and a 5.9 yppl to 5.1 yppl advantage).