(11) Houston @

SMU

Sat, Oct 22
ESPN2
4:00 PM Pacific
WatchESPN
Rotation: 369
Odds: SMU +21, Total: 63

Game Analysis

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Houston (-21)  38   SMU  17

The math favors Houston by 21 points but there is some value in the under (62.5 or 63 points). Houston’s offense is not as good as you’d think it is, as the Cougars have been just 0.4 yards per play better than average with Greg Ward III in the game (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) while SMU’s defense is surprisingly only 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). Houston is actually just as good defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl) as they are only offense and SMU’s offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average. The tempo is higher than normal by about 12 plays but the math does not justify a total over 60 points. In fact, I get 55 points scored in this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Houston
  • SMU
HOU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 41.0 30.3
  • Run Yards 177.5 102.3
  • YPRP 4.6 3.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 28.3 18.7
  • Pass Att 40.2 33.0
  • Comp % 70.5% 56.6%
  • Pass Yards 334.2 237.3
  • Sacks 1.8 2.7
  • Sack Yards 9.3 15.3
  • Sack % 4.4% 7.5%
  • Pass Plays 42.0 35.7
  • Net Pass Yards 324.8 222.0
  • YPPP 7.7 6.2

Total

  • Total Plays 83.0 66.0
  • Total Yards 511.7 339.7
  • YPPL 6.2 5.1

TO


  • Int 0.8 0.8
  • Int % 2.1% 2.5%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.7 1.3
 
  • Points 42.7 19.0
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