Game Analysis

Las Vegas Bowl

Saturday, December 17 – 12:30 pm Pacific

Houston (-4)  24   San Diego State  23

Lean San Diego State (+4)

Lean Under (51 ½)

When Houston is focused and healthy they are tough to beat, which helps explain upset wins over Oklahoma and Louisville. The Cougars also lost twice as favorites of 17 points or more, including a 22 point loss to lowly SMU, and they suffered a letdown in a loss at Memphis the week after their big win over Louisville. Which version of Houston is going to show up for this game? A case can be made that playing a minor Bowl on the first day of the Bowl season is not likely to inspire a team that played in the Orange Bowl last year (upset Florida State) and was ranked as high at #6 in the polls early this season. The Cougars also lost their head coach to Texas, although the hiring of offensive coordinator as the new head coach is popular among the players. But, how will that coaching change affect how the players view this game? I’m inclined to think that this game will be viewed as an unwanted consolation prize by Houston players while San Diego State will be thrilled to be facing a team of Houston’s caliber after earning their way to this bowl game by winning the Mountain West Championship game.

San Diego State wins the old fashioned way, with a relentless two-man rushing attack and solid defense. The Aztecs averaged nearly 300 rushing yards per game at 6.8 yards per rushing play with Donnell Pumphrey leading the way with 2018 yards at 6.1 ypr while being spelled by Rashaad Penny and Juwan Washington, who combined for 1428 yards at 8.0 ypr. Pumphrey needs 108 yards to break Ron Dayne’s NCAA career rushing record and he’ll be fired up to accomplish that feat in his home city of Las Vegas. Quarterback Christian Chapman is below average at 6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback but he’s only thrown 6 interceptions all season and has a standout big play receiver in Mikah Holder (21.9 yards per catch) to keep defenses honest if they put too many men at the line of scrimmage to defend the run.

Overall, I rate the San Diego State attack at just 0.3 yards per play better than average and their run-heavy game plan doesn’t match up particularly well against a Houston defense with a very strong defensive front led by freshman phenom Ed Oliver, who had 19.5 total tackles for loss this season. Houston only allowed 4.3 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average team) and the Cougars’ pass defense is 1.0 yppp better than average if I exclude the 5 games that star pass rushing linebacker/end Tyus Bowser missed in the middle of the season. Bowser had 7.5 sacks in just 7 games and his late season return was a big factor in the Cougars’ win over Louisville (he has 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries). I only included the games in which Bowser and starting CB Brandon Wilson played (he missed week’s 4 through 6) and I project San Diego State to average a modest 5.1 yards per rushing pay and only 4.9 yards per play in this game.

Houston’s offense is led by Greg Ward Jr, who had to throw a lot more often because the rushing attack went from great last year to below average this season (4.3 yprp against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp). Ward’s passing numbers weren’t great, as he averaged 6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp) but he is good at moving the chains and doesn’t make many mistakes (just 9 interceptions in 11 games on 435 passes). Ward’s low interception percentage will be put to the test against a San Diego State defense that was among the national leaders in interceptions for a 2^nd consecutive year thanks to Damontae Kazee, who picked off 8 passes last season and 7 more so far this season, to lead a team that accumulated 22 interceptions in 13 games. San Diego State rates at 0.5 yards per play better than average, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team and that unit has an edge over a Houston offense that was 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl). Houston does run a lot of plays, however, as Ward consistently finds ways to get first downs, and I project 390 total yards at 5.2 yards per play for the Cougars in this game.

While I do think that San Diego State cares about this game more than Houston does it’s certainly possible that the Cougars could be fired up to send senior quarterback Greg Ward Jr. out in style in his final game. I’ll just stick with the math, and the math favors Houston by only 1 point with 47 total points. I’ll lean with San Diego State at +3 or more and Under 50 points or higher.