(6) Houston @

Navy

Sat, Oct 8
CBS Sports Network
12:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 355
Odds: Navy +17.5, Total: 50.5

Game Analysis

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Houston (-17)  38  NAVY  23

Houston certainly has the defensive line to get into the backfield and disrupt the timing of the Navy option attack but some ultra-athletic defenses would rather attack than be disciplined and react, which is what is necessary to defend the option. Last season, Houston did a decent job defending the run against Navy (5.1 yards per rushing play allowed) but the Cougars were burnt deep through the air multiple times and allowed 286 passing yards and 8.7 yards per play. Houston also scored 52 points and won by 21 points.

My math model favors Houston by 17 ½ points, so the line is fair, but Houston applies to a negative 12-56-3 ATS letdown situation that plays against unbeaten teams. I’ll lean with the Midshipmen and the over (50.5) appears to have a lot of value.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Houston
  • Navy
HOU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 40.5 21.3
  • Run Yards 162.8 52.5
  • YPRP 4.3 3.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 28.0 20.5
  • Pass Att 39.3 35.5
  • Comp % 71.3% 57.7%
  • Pass Yards 348.0 245.8
  • Sacks 2.3 3.8
  • Sack Yards 13.0 21.0
  • Sack % 5.4% 9.6%
  • Pass Plays 41.5 39.3
  • Net Pass Yards 335.0 224.8
  • YPPP 8.1 5.7

Total

  • Total Plays 82.0 60.5
  • Total Yards 510.8 298.3
  • YPPL 6.2 4.9

TO


  • Int 0.5 1.0
  • Int % 1.3% 2.8%
  • Fumbles 0.5 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.0 1.5
 
  • Points 44.2 11.2
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