Game Analysis

MEMPHIS (-7.5)  41   Houston  28

Houston’s star quarterback D’Eriq King is out for the season due to a knee injury and backup Clayton Tune has been horrible when he’s had the chance to play. Tune has completed just 20 of 42 passes despite most of those attempts being against a horrible Texas Southern defense. Tune connected on just 6 of 15 passes last week against Tulane and there is a significant downgrade at the quarterback position even if Tune plays at an average level in the pass game, as King’s running (749 yards on 97 runs) will also be missed (Tune is not a running quarterback).

Houston will probably get All-American DL Ed Oliver back this week and the Cougars’ run defense has been a lot better with Oliver (1.0 yards per rushing play better than average) than it’s been in the 4 games without him (0.5 yprp worse than average). While Oliver and company may be able to slow down the elite Memphis run game (272 yards at 7.0 yprp) the Cougars will struggle defending Tigers’ quarterback Brady White, who is averaging 8.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback) and is projected at 8.2 yppp at home against a Houston defense that is 1.2 yppp worse than average (about the same as the average defense White has faced).

I like Memphis here and would get more interested if this line drops to -7. I also see value in the under with Oliver back and King out for Houston.