Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Hawaii (+4)  26   NEVADA  24

These teams are both bad but Hawaii has been better on both offense and defense and should not be getting 3 points or more in this game. Nevada has been outgained by an average of 4.7 yards per play to 7.4 yppl this season while facing teams that are collectively a bit worse than an average FBS team. I rate Nevada’s offense at 1.8 yppl worse than average while I rate the Wolf Pack defense at 1.2 yppl worse than average after adjusting for the outliers (12.7 yppl allowed to USC; they’ve been 1.4 yppl worse than average without an adjustment).

Hawaii’s defense is terrible but that unit (0.9 yppl worse than average) is better than Nevada’s defense and the Warriors are much better offensively than the Wolf Pack, rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average (compared to -1.8 yppl).

What has made Hawaii look just as bad as Nevada has been their -15 turnover margin (Nevada is even), which has cost them 7.5 points per game. Hawaii’s metrics project them to be just -0.3 in turnover margin per game rather than -1.9 and the math model predicts the Warriors to turn it over only 0.5 times more than Nevada in this game. Hawaii is likely to cover the spread as long as they are -1 or better in turnover margin.

Hawaii is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 or more.