Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **OVER (64.5) – UCF (-4.5)  40  Georgia Tech  33

UCF was just 6-6 in the regular season but the Golden Knights outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play to 5.9 yppl. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is 6-6 but was outgained by their opponents.

Georgia Tech is a slightly better than average team because their offense has been 0.9 yards per play better than average (6.3 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) – although Haynes King continued his habit of throwing interceptions (15) that he started while at Texas A&M. King now has 25 interceptions throw in his 580 career passes, which is a very high percentage (4.3%, compared to 2.9% national average).  UCF’s defense was 0.3 yppl better than average this season but the Knight’s best defensive back, CB Corey Thornton, has transferred. Thornton is worth 1.4 points according to my metrics, as he had 25% of the Knight’s passes defended this season. I project 450 yards at 6.6 yppl for the Yellow Jackets in this game.

UCF’s offense should easily surpass what Georgia Tech’s offense puts up, as the Knights are better offensively, at 1.4 yppl better than average (7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl), while the Yellow Jackets’ defense was 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl) and will be without their best defensive player, edge rusher Kyle Kennard, who transferred to South Carolina. Kennard’s 6 sacks and 11 total tackles for loss will not easily be replaced given that no other Yellow Jackets defensive player had more than 2 sacks and 8 total TFL. He’s worth 0.2 yppl and 1.6 points to the Yellow Jackets already bad defense. UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee was a bit better in his 8 games than backup Timmy McClain was. UCF is projected to gain 583 total yards at 8.0 yppl in this game, which is not far-fetched given that they averaged 7.2 yppl against teams that were 0.7 yppl better defensively than Georgia Tech is without Kennard.

Georgia Tech does have an advantage in special teams but overall the math favors the Golden Knights by 11.5 points. That would normally qualify as a Best Bet but UCF applies to a 12-57-1 ATS Bowl game situation and a 3-28 ATS situation. There is still overall value on UCF in this game based on the historical performance of my math model and the situational analysis but the better play is on the Over, as both teams should move the ball well in this game and easily surpass their scoring averages.

The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 65 or less and 1-Star up to 66 points (Strong Opinion to 67 points).