Game Analysis

Lean – Over (48) – Wyoming (-7/-7.5)  29   Georgia State  22

I certainly would have been leaning against Wyoming if Tyler Vander Waal were still at quarterback for the Cowboys but the coaching staff has turned to freshman Levi Williams, who got the majority of snaps in the season finale against Air Force and is very likely better than Vander Waal, who saw the writing on the wall and entered the transfer portal a couple of weeks ago (although he is available to play in this game). There’s not much to go on with Williams, as he has just 15 pass plays (for 6.4 yards per pass play) and 26 runs for 129 yards, but it’s inconceivable that he’s be worse than Vander Waal, who averaged a pathetic 3.9 yards on close to 400 career pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. I still rate the Cowboys’ attack a bit worse than their season rating of 0.5 yppl worse than average, as Williams probably won’t be as good as injured starter Sean Chambers, who was lost for the season after 8 games. However, the Cowboys should move the ball well in this game, as their solid ground attack will work against a Georgia State defense that allowed 6.0 yards per rushing play and Williams is reportedly looking good throwing in practice and should have pretty good success against a horrible Panthers’ secondary that allowed 65% completions and 7.8 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppl against an average defense). So, while Wyoming figures to be below average offensively even if Williams is an upgrade over Vander Waal, they should look pretty good against the porous Georgia State defense. I project 392 yards at 6.3 yppl for the Cowboys.

Georgia State averaged 448 yard at 5.9 yppl but the Panthers are 0.2 yppl worse than average after compensating for defenses faced and they’ve been worse than that recently with quarterback Dan Ellington playing with a torn ACL that takes away his ability to run. Ellington ran for 707 yards on 112 runs in the first 9 games but could only muster 37 yards on 16 runs over the final 3 games. The only positive is that Georgia State will likely throw the ball more, which takes advantage of Wyoming’s defensive weaknes. Wyoming only allowed 17.8 points per game but the Cowboys are actually just average defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense, and the Cowboys are 0.8 yards per pass play worse than aveage. The discrepancy between Wyoming’s points allowed and yards allowed is due to a ridiculously low 3.6 points per redzone opportunity allowed, which is 1.3 ppRZ below the national average and nearly impossible to maintain. That number should regress and that’s part of the reason my model likes the over in this game. Georgia State is projected to score 22 points on 388 yards at 5.3 yards per play.

Overall, my math favors Wyoming by 7.5 points with 51.9 total points and I’ll lean over the total.