Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *JAMES MADISON (-9.5 -105) 34 Georgia State 17
James Madison is 6-3 straight up and 6-3 ATS but the Dukes were missing their best offensive player (QB Todd Centeio) and their All-American candidate LB Jailin Walker (injured early in the game) in their 12-26 loss to Marshall in week 8 and the defense without Walker was dismal in their week 10 loss at Louisville. Walker returned last week and the Dukes’ defense went back to their dominating ways, in a 37-3 win over Old Dominion. James Madison has allowed just 17.6 points per game and 4.6 yards per play in the 7 games with Walker and the offense has averaged 38.3 points per game with Centeio at the helm.
JMU is 6-1 ATS with both Centeio and Walker playing and their recent losses have the Dukes underrated again heading into this game against a below average Georgia State team that is 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively and just average defensively. Georgia State’s offense appears to be pretty good, as they’ve averaged 5.9 yppl and 29.7 points per game but the Panthers have faced a schedule of teams that would allow 6.6 yppl to an average offensive team and they scored just 14 points on 4.5 yppl against South Carolina – the only better than average defense that they’ve faced this season. James Madison’s defense is significantly better than that South Carolina stop unit and I project just 4.2 yppl for the Panthers in this game. James Madison, meanwhile, is projected to average 6.3 yppl and should win this game handily.
James Madison is a 1-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
- Georgia St.
- James Madison
Rush
-
Run Plays
46.4
36.3
-
Run Yards
255.0
178.1
-
YPRP
5.5
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
14.6
18.0
-
Pass Att
25.5
30.3
-
Comp %
57.3%
59.4%
-
Pass Yards
196.1
229.7
-
Sacks
2.2
2.1
-
Sack Yards
10.7
14.0
-
Sack %
7.9%
6.5%
-
Pass Plays
27.7
32.4
-
Net Pass Yards
185.4
215.7
-
YPPP
6.7
6.7
Total
-
Total Plays
74.1
68.7
-
Total Yards
440.4
393.8
-
YPPL
5.9
5.7
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.2
-
Int %
2.7%
4.0%
-
Fumbles
1.1
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.8
2.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
41.6
27.8
-
Run Yards
206.2
98.7
-
YPRP
5.0
3.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.1
17.1
-
Pass Att
29.7
30.9
-
Comp %
61.0%
55.4%
-
Pass Yards
266.9
220.1
-
Sacks
1.9
3.3
-
Sack Yards
11.8
17.8
-
Sack %
6.0%
9.7%
-
Pass Plays
31.6
34.2
-
Net Pass Yards
255.1
202.3
-
YPPP
8.1
5.9
Total
-
Total Plays
73.1
62.0
-
Total Yards
461.3
301.0
-
YPPL
6.3
4.9
TO
-
Int
1.0
1.1
-
Int %
3.4%
3.6%
-
Fumbles
0.7
1.0
-
Turnovers
1.7
2.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/22 @ South Carolina |
14-35 |
+12.5
L
|
40/29 |
200/97 |
5.0/3.3 |
0/0 |
7/23 |
29/37 |
111/209 |
1/2 |
0/3 |
3.8/5.2 |
311/306 |
4.5/4.4 |
| 09/10/22 North Carolina |
28-35 |
+7.5
W
|
52/38 |
243/198 |
4.7/5.2 |
0/2 |
16/19 |
24/24 |
178/270 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
6.8/10.0 |
421/468 |
5.4/7.2 |
| 09/17/22 Charlotte |
41-42 |
-19.5
L
|
50/22 |
274/111 |
5.5/5.0 |
1/0 |
22/31 |
34/43 |
331/390 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
9.2/8.9 |
605/501 |
7.0/7.6 |
| 09/22/22 Coastal Carolina |
24-41 |
+2.5
L
|
31/50 |
94/278 |
3.0/5.6 |
2/0 |
14/22 |
25/31 |
211/308 |
2/0 |
2/0 |
7.8/9.9 |
305/586 |
5.3/7.2 |
| 10/01/22 @ Army |
31-14 |
+7.5
W
|
42/69 |
309/350 |
7.4/5.1 |
1/2 |
8/1 |
12/8 |
151/11 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
11.6/1.4 |
460/361 |
8.4/4.7 |
| 10/08/22 Georgia Southern |
41-33 |
-2.5
W
|
50/28 |
341/100 |
6.8/3.6 |
1/1 |
16/30 |
25/49 |
180/357 |
1/4 |
2/0 |
6.7/7.3 |
521/457 |
6.8/5.9 |
| 10/19/22 @ Appalachian State |
17-42 |
+9.5
L
|
35/64 |
228/404 |
6.5/6.3 |
3/1 |
9/7 |
23/17 |
57/62 |
1/0 |
6/0 |
2.0/3.6 |
285/466 |
4.5/5.8 |
| 10/29/22 Old Dominion |
31-17 |
-3.5
W
|
58/17 |
234/66 |
4.0/3.9 |
1/1 |
14/19 |
20/34 |
193/217 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
9.2/5.6 |
427/283 |
5.4/5.1 |
| 11/05/22 @ Southern Miss |
42-14 |
+2.5
W
|
54/21 |
410/85 |
7.6/4.0 |
1/1 |
15/13 |
23/32 |
118/123 |
0/1 |
2/7 |
4.7/3.2 |
528/208 |
6.7/3.5 |
| 11/12/22 UL Monroe |
28-31 |
-13.5
L
|
52/25 |
217/92 |
4.2/3.7 |
1/0 |
25/15 |
40/28 |
324/210 |
1/1 |
4/2 |
7.4/7.0 |
541/302 |
5.6/5.5 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/03/22 Middle Tenn St |
44-7 |
-4.5
W
|
50/25 |
277/39 |
5.5/1.6 |
0/1 |
21/18 |
33/32 |
271/93 |
0/0 |
2/4 |
7.7/2.6 |
548/132 |
6.4/2.2 |
| 09/10/22 Norfolk State |
63-7 |
0.0
W
|
43/25 |
237/35 |
5.5/1.4 |
0/1 |
20/10 |
25/24 |
276/166 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
11.0/6.1 |
513/201 |
7.5/3.9 |
| 09/24/22 @ Appalachian State |
32-28 |
+7.0
W
|
40/30 |
224/88 |
5.6/2.9 |
2/1 |
16/17 |
28/28 |
192/210 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
6.4/6.6 |
416/298 |
5.9/4.8 |
| 10/01/22 Texas State |
40-13 |
-21.0
W
|
50/30 |
207/111 |
4.1/3.7 |
2/2 |
15/12 |
25/27 |
252/103 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
9.7/3.6 |
459/214 |
6.0/3.6 |
| 10/08/22 @ Arkansas St. |
42-20 |
-11.0
W
|
40/20 |
213/58 |
5.3/2.9 |
0/1 |
28/16 |
37/26 |
394/216 |
0/0 |
0/6 |
10.6/6.8 |
607/274 |
7.9/5.3 |
| 10/15/22 @ Georgia Southern |
38-45 |
-11.5
L
|
37/14 |
224/15 |
6.1/1.1 |
1/0 |
28/38 |
48/64 |
447/576 |
3/1 |
3/1 |
8.8/8.9 |
671/591 |
7.6/7.5 |
| 10/22/22 Marshall |
12-26 |
-9.5
L
|
30/40 |
124/179 |
4.1/4.5 |
1/1 |
13/15 |
35/31 |
123/139 |
4/2 |
7/3 |
2.9/4.1 |
247/318 |
3.4/4.3 |
| 11/05/22 @ Louisville |
10-34 |
+6.5
L
|
36/41 |
141/264 |
3.9/6.4 |
0/1 |
4/14 |
15/20 |
52/203 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
3.5/8.8 |
193/467 |
3.8/7.3 |
| 11/12/22 @ Old Dominion |
37-3 |
-7.0
W
|
48/25 |
209/99 |
4.4/4.0 |
0/1 |
18/14 |
21/26 |
289/115 |
1/3 |
2/4 |
12.6/3.8 |
498/214 |
7.0/3.9 |
Georgia St.
@ 
James Madison