Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Georgia State (+8) 23 CONNECTICUT 25
Connecticut is not as good with Nick Evers at quarterback, as Evers has completed just 51.8% of his passes while averaging only 4.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average QB) while Joe Fagnano has completed 58.2% of his passes and averaged 9.7 yppp on 100 pass plays. Fagnano did face mostly backups against Maryland and had a big game against FCS team Merrimack (328 yards on 19 passes), but he averaged 7.4 yppp on 62 pass plays in week 5 and 6 against Buffalo and Temple while rating at 0.2 yppp better than average in those games relative to what those teams would allow to an average FBS QB. Jim Mora continues to stick with Evers, who is just a sophomore, rather than go with the senior and I’m hoping Fagnano sits this game out too (Evers has played every snap the last two weeks).
Georgia State has had a quarterback upgrade with Zach Gibson taking over for Christian Veilleux. Gibson has shown flashes of good play at Akron and Georgia Tech, and he’s completed 41 of 60 passes (68%) while rating at 0.3 yppp worse than average. That’s a lot better than Veilluex, who has been 1.1 yppp worse than average this season. I am not going to assume that Gibson will be 0.8 yppp better going forward, but I did upgrade the Panthers’ pass attack by 0.3 yppp.
Connecticut’s defense has been solid, but they’re also overrated based on facing the significantly worse of the two Temple quarterbacks, the Rice backup last week, who managed just 74 yards on 32 pass plays, and facing Wake Forest without their big-play receiver. Gibson should post decent numbers and Georgia State’s better than average run game (5.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp) should work well against a below average UConn run defense that has allowed only 4.8 yprp but has faced teams that would average only 4.6 yprp against an average defense.
Connecticut’s offense is 1.0 yppl worse than average with Evers at quarterback, which is worse than Georgia State’s defense (0.8 yppl worse than average). However, Georgia State’s two inside linebackers, who are the team’s top two tacklers, both missed last week’s game and I have not been able to find any news on whether they’re expected to play this game or not. I’ll assume they’re both out, which I project to make the Panthers’ defense 0.25 yppl worse (i.e. about 1.5 points worse).
There is certainly value on Georgia State, as UConn’s offense and defense are both worse than their season numbers while the Panthers have been better with Gibson at quarterback. My concern is that Connecticut coach Mora will put Fagnano in the game if Evers continues to struggle. That will keep me from making this game a Best Bet.
Georgia State is a Strong Opinion at +7 or more.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Georgia St.
- Connecticut
Rush
- Run Plays 28.0 35.6
- Run Yards 152.4 197.9
- YPRP 5.4 5.6
Pass
- Pass Comp 22.7 17.4
- Pass Att 37.4 27.7
- Comp % 60.7% 62.9%
- Pass Yards 247.7 223.9
- Sacks 1.6 1.3
- Sack Yards 13.3 7.3
- Sack % 4.0% 4.4%
- Pass Plays 39.0 29.0
- Net Pass Yards 234.4 216.6
- YPPP 6.0 7.5
Total
- Total Plays 67.0 64.6
- Total Yards 386.9 414.4
- YPPL 5.8 6.4
TO
- Int 0.7 0.7
- Int % 1.9% 2.6%
- Fumbles 0.4 0.7
- Turnovers 1.1 1.4
- Points 21.9 30.7