Game Analysis

Georgia Southern (-3.5)  25   Ohio  22

Ohio is without their top two quarterbacks and their top two running backs, as starting QB Kurtis Rourke and running backs Bangura and Allison have hit the transfer portal while backup QB CJ Harris is injured. Parker Navarro will be behind center and I expect a lot of quarterback runs, as Navarro has 192 yards on 23 runs in his career and just 87 yards on 27 career pass plays. Bangura and Allison combined for 4.0 ypr this season, so losing them is not a huge problem and I think Navarro will top 100 yards rushing against a poor tackling Georgia Southern defense that gave up 5.6 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average team) and allowed 5.8 yprp to quarterbacks, including 85 yards on 10 runs to the only running quarterback that they faced (Georgia State’s Darren Grainger). The Eagles’ pass defense is even worse (1.1 yards per pass play worse than average) but I’m not expecting much through the air from Navarro, as he’s never proven that he can throw the ball effectively and the Bobcats are without their 2 most efficient receivers, as Miles Cross (7.6 yards per target on 79 targets) has transferred while star WR Jacoby Jones (147 yards on 13 targets in 3 games) was injured early in the season. I project 331 yards at 5.0 yppl for Ohio in this game but there is obviously a lot of variance in that forecast.

Georgia Southern’s offense was 0.1 yppl worse than average in the regular season (5.8 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack) and the possible absence of top RB Jalen White isn’t really an issue given that backup OJ Arnold’s 5.8 ypr is a bit better than White’s 5.6 ypr average. Ohio’s defense didn’t give up many points (15.9 per game against FBS foes) but they were just 0.1 yppl better than average in the regular season (4.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppr) and will be without LB Keye Thompson, who was second on the team in tackles and third in total tackles for loss. I project 360 yards at 5.7 yppl for Georgia Southern’s offense.

The math favors Georgia Southern by 5 points but Ohio applies to a 75-27 ATS bowl situation that plays on underdogs with a significantly better defense.