Game Analysis

Note: The line on this game has moved significantly since I released this play to subscribers early in the week. Just a Lean on Marshall at -10.

1-Star Best Bet – *MARSHALL (-7 -120)  41   Georgia Southern  26

I won my bet against Georgia Southern last week (lost by 35 points at home to Old Dominion) and I see value against the overrated Eagles again this week on the road, where they tend to be even worse. Georgia Southern is 13-6-1 ATS at home under coach Clay Helton but just 9-16 ATS away from home, including 1-4 ATS this season.

Marshall has been an underrated team since Carlos Del Rio-Wilson took over at quarterback midway through their week 3 game against Eastern Kentucky. The Thundering Herd are 6-3 ATS with Del Rio-Wilson at quarterback and he’s completed 67.5% of his passes for 7.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average QB) and he’s also run for 733 yards in the last 9 games. Marshall’s offense is 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively and they should move the ball consistently well against a horrible Georgia Southern defense that’s allowed 35.5 points per game on 6.5 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 5.4 yppl against an average team.

Georgia Southern is below average offensively but they’re a bit better than a Marshall defense that is bad defending the pass and has been 0.6 yppl worse than average overall this season.

The math projects Marshall to outgain the Eagles 542 yards to 392 yards and to win by 13.5 points, which could be more given Georgia Southern’s struggles on the road.

Marshall is a 1-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and a Strong Opinion to -9.5 points.