Georgia Southern @

James Madison

Sat, Oct 14
ESPN2
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 161
Odds: James Madison -4.5, Total: 58.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *JAMES MADISON (-4.5)  34   Georgia Southern  22

James Madison is now 13-3 since moving up from the FCS level to the FBS level, including 5-0 this season. The Dukes aren’t quite as good defensively this season as they were last year but they’re still 0.5 yards per play better than average on that side of the ball (5.5 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team) and the offense is also playing at a good level (6.1 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.5 yppl). Quarterback Jordan McCloud has averaged 8.5 yards per pass play and rates as 1.7 yppp better than average against FBS foes. He should have his way through the air against a bad Georgia Southern pass defense that’s given up 7.0 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team. The Eagles are also worse than average defending the run and the Dukes project to average 5.5 yards per rushing play and 9.2 yppp in this game. Georgia Southern held horrible offensive teams The Citadel and Ball State to a combined 3 points, but they’ve given up an average of 33 points to 3 mediocre offensive teams (UAB, Wisconsin and Coastal Carolina) and James Madison is the best offensive team that they have faced.

Georgia Southern’s offense attempts to throw the football 51 times per game and the Eagles will likely try about 60 pass plays in this game, as JMU doesn’t allow opponents to run on them (only 64 rush yards at 2.9 yprp allowed). The Dukes are 0.2 yppp better than average defending the pass and Georgia Southern quarterback Davis Brin has been 0.8 yppp worse than average so far this season (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average QB). The Eagles are projected to average only 5.1 yppp and 4.7 yppl in this game and they’d need to connect on multiple big pass plays to stay competitive against a James Madison team that should be able to move the ball consistently well.

James Madison is a 1-Star Best Bet at -5.5 or less and a Strong Opinion at -6.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Georgia Southern
  • James Madison
GSOU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 25.2 31.8
  • Run Yards 149.2 157.0
  • YPRP 5.9 4.9




Pass





  • Pass Comp 34.6 18.2
  • Pass Att 49.2 30.0
  • Comp % 70.3% 60.7%
  • Pass Yards 337.0 220.4
  • Sacks 1.8 1.6
  • Sack Yards 9.4 11.6
  • Sack % 3.5% 5.1%
  • Pass Plays 51.0 31.6
  • Net Pass Yards 327.6 208.8
  • YPPP 6.4 6.6

Total

  • Total Plays 76.2 63.4
  • Total Yards 476.8 365.8
  • YPPL 6.3 5.8

TO


  • Int 1.4 1.4
  • Int % 2.8% 4.7%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.6
  • Turnovers 2.0 2.0
 
  • Points 35.0 20.2
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