Game Analysis
Georgia Southern (-10.5) 30 GEORGIA STATE 24
Georgia Southern has been outgained by over 50 yards per game and has a line of scrimmage rating that is nearly 11 points worse than an average FBS team. However, the Eagles have turned the ball over just 4 times on offense in 10 games against FBS opponents and they’re +19 in turnover margin in those games. I expect Georgia Southern to turn the ball over less than their opponents because they don’t throw the ball very often, but +1.9 turnovers per game is still mostly luck and my math model projects the yards about even in this game. The math does project GSU to be +0.7 in turnover margin and they’ll probably need to be +2 to cover the spread in this game. There is certainly value on the home dog here due to turnover variance.
- Georgia Southern
- Georgia St.
Rush
-
Run Plays
46.2
34.1
-
Run Yards
257.3
154.1
-
YPRP
5.8
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
5.3
20.0
-
Pass Att
9.2
31.5
-
Comp %
57.6%
63.5%
-
Pass Yards
85.5
240.5
-
Sacks
1.8
2.2
-
Sack Yards
9.8
12.4
-
Sack %
16.4%
6.5%
-
Pass Plays
11.0
33.7
-
Net Pass Yards
75.7
228.1
-
YPPP
6.9
6.8
Total
-
Total Plays
57.2
67.8
-
Total Yards
342.8
394.6
-
YPPL
6.0
5.8
TO
-
Int
0.0
1.2
-
Int %
0.0%
3.8%
-
Fumbles
0.4
1.1
-
Turnovers
0.4
2.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.7
36.4
-
Run Yards
180.2
243.0
-
YPRP
5.3
6.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.9
19.2
-
Pass Att
29.0
26.3
-
Comp %
58.3%
73.0%
-
Pass Yards
208.4
247.3
-
Sacks
2.2
1.2
-
Sack Yards
13.8
6.1
-
Sack %
7.0%
4.3%
-
Pass Plays
31.2
27.5
-
Net Pass Yards
194.5
241.2
-
YPPP
6.2
8.8
Total
-
Total Plays
67.9
63.8
-
Total Yards
388.5
490.3
-
YPPL
5.7
7.7
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.5
-
Int %
1.6%
1.7%
-
Fumbles
1.1
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.5
0.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 South Carolina State |
37-6 |
-28.5
W
|
53/38 |
319/130 |
6.0/3.4 |
0/1 |
5/2 |
7/10 |
29/21 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
4.1/1.6 |
348/151 |
5.8/3.0 |
| 09/08/18 Massachusetts |
34-13 |
-2.5
W
|
55/24 |
341/109 |
6.2/4.5 |
0/1 |
6/23 |
9/36 |
154/216 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
17.1/6.0 |
495/325 |
7.7/5.4 |
| 09/15/18 @ Clemson |
7-38 |
+33.0
W
|
38/45 |
110/318 |
2.9/7.1 |
1/1 |
3/21 |
9/31 |
33/281 |
0/2 |
5/1 |
2.4/8.8 |
143/599 |
2.8/7.8 |
| 09/29/18 Arkansas St. |
28-21 |
+3.5
W
|
48/30 |
353/146 |
7.4/4.9 |
0/1 |
1/38 |
3/50 |
56/345 |
0/0 |
1/6 |
14.0/6.2 |
409/491 |
7.9/5.7 |
| 10/06/18 South Alabama |
48-13 |
-13.5
W
|
43/37 |
295/119 |
6.9/3.2 |
0/2 |
5/19 |
8/30 |
99/190 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
12.4/6.1 |
394/309 |
7.7/4.5 |
| 10/11/18 @ Texas State |
15-13 |
-17.5
L
|
50/28 |
184/129 |
3.7/4.6 |
1/1 |
7/14 |
12/27 |
37/113 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
2.6/3.6 |
221/242 |
3.5/4.1 |
| 10/20/18 @ New Mexico St. |
48-31 |
-10.0
W
|
58/32 |
399/179 |
6.9/5.6 |
0/2 |
4/25 |
4/38 |
70/269 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
14.0/6.6 |
469/448 |
7.4/6.1 |
| 10/25/18 Appalachian State |
34-14 |
+10.5
W
|
48/35 |
288/160 |
6.0/4.6 |
0/1 |
1/12 |
3/27 |
54/128 |
0/4 |
1/2 |
13.5/4.4 |
342/288 |
6.6/4.5 |
| 11/03/18 @ UL Monroe |
25-44 |
-7.0
L
|
41/41 |
167/240 |
4.1/5.9 |
1/0 |
8/13 |
15/22 |
49/337 |
0/2 |
5/0 |
2.5/15.3 |
216/577 |
3.5/9.2 |
| 11/10/18 Troy |
21-35 |
+1.0
L
|
30/39 |
115/151 |
3.8/3.9 |
0/1 |
14/23 |
23/30 |
177/304 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
6.8/9.5 |
292/455 |
5.2/6.4 |
| 11/17/18 @ Coastal Carolina |
41-17 |
-7.0
W
|
51/30 |
419/114 |
8.2/3.8 |
1/1 |
4/12 |
6/24 |
28/98 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
4.7/3.6 |
447/212 |
7.8/3.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/30/18 Kennesaw State |
24-20 |
-2.0
W
|
34/50 |
149/182 |
4.4/3.6 |
1/1 |
20/12 |
28/19 |
164/200 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
5.3/10.0 |
313/382 |
4.8/5.5 |
| 09/08/18 @ No Carolina St. |
7-41 |
+24.5
L
|
28/31 |
120/115 |
4.3/3.7 |
1/0 |
18/32 |
34/39 |
218/384 |
0/1 |
3/0 |
5.9/9.8 |
338/499 |
5.2/7.1 |
| 09/14/18 @ Memphis |
22-59 |
+28.0
L
|
41/33 |
183/344 |
4.5/10.4 |
0/0 |
19/19 |
34/26 |
137/265 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
3.8/9.8 |
320/609 |
4.2/10.2 |
| 09/22/18 Western Mich |
15-34 |
+7.5
L
|
26/43 |
90/299 |
3.5/7.0 |
2/0 |
19/20 |
29/25 |
256/234 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
7.8/9.4 |
346/533 |
5.9/7.8 |
| 09/29/18 UL Monroe |
46-14 |
+7.0
W
|
52/19 |
331/130 |
6.4/6.8 |
1/2 |
15/20 |
18/34 |
152/136 |
0/2 |
3/1 |
7.2/3.9 |
483/266 |
6.6/4.9 |
| 10/04/18 @ Troy |
20-37 |
+16.5
L
|
33/37 |
117/342 |
3.5/9.2 |
2/0 |
20/19 |
36/25 |
254/211 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
6.7/8.1 |
371/553 |
5.2/8.8 |
| 10/18/18 @ Arkansas St. |
35-51 |
+13.0
L
|
39/35 |
156/289 |
4.0/8.3 |
2/0 |
20/17 |
33/28 |
278/241 |
0/0 |
4/2 |
7.5/8.0 |
434/530 |
5.7/8.2 |
| 10/27/18 Coastal Carolina |
34-37 |
+3.5
W
|
33/44 |
310/266 |
9.4/6.0 |
1/1 |
14/13 |
25/18 |
211/216 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
7.8/10.3 |
521/482 |
8.7/7.4 |
| 11/03/18 Texas State |
31-40 |
-6.5
L
|
43/35 |
221/180 |
5.1/5.1 |
2/0 |
21/21 |
40/26 |
224/309 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
5.6/11.4 |
445/489 |
5.4/7.9 |
| 11/10/18 @ UL Lafayette |
22-36 |
+14.0
T
|
42/37 |
259/356 |
6.2/9.6 |
0/0 |
10/16 |
21/23 |
114/170 |
1/0 |
1/0 |
5.2/7.4 |
373/526 |
5.8/8.8 |
| 11/17/18 @ Appalachian State |
17-45 |
+28.0
T
|
33/36 |
198/237 |
6.0/6.6 |
0/0 |
10/22 |
21/26 |
132/287 |
2/0 |
0/3 |
6.3/9.9 |
330/524 |
6.1/8.1 |
Georgia Southern
@ 
Georgia St.