Game Analysis

Georgia Southern (-3.5)  35   Buffalo  32

Both of these teams are horrible defensively but Georgia Southern is a better offensive team and should be able to outscore the offensively challenged Bulls.

Buffalo averaged 29 points per game this season with a ball-control offense of runs and short passes. The Bulls averaged 75.3 plays per game (minus kneel downs and spikes) but managed just 5.1 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average offensive team. That unit is ever worse without WR Jamari Gassett, who led the Bulls with 9.1 yards per target but had just 3 targets over the final 4 games and has decided to transfer. Marlyn Johnson has stepped into Gassett’s role, but he’s averaged only 3.9 YPT on 33 starters this season. Buffalo’s best receiver of the 3 running backs, Ron Cook Jr., is also out and his 8.3 YPT and 50% success rate catching passes is going to be missed given that fellow backs Washington and Henderson combine for just 4.4 YPT and a dismal 25% success rate. In the final 4 games of the season with Gassett and Cook not playing much, the Bulls averaged only 4.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average team) and only 4.3 yppl. I don’t think that the Bulls are that bad but their pass attack projects at 0.5 yppp worse than their season rating of -1.4 yppp.

Georgia Southern allowed over 250 ground yards per game at 6.4 yards per rushing play (against teams that would average only 4.9 yprp) so I imagine that Buffalo will turn to the run more than usual, even with the good passing conditions (just 3 mph winds expected). The Eagles are terrible defending the pass too (7.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp) so the Bulls may not be as bad throwing as they’ve been lately. I project 441 yards at 5.7 yppl for Buffalo in this game. I did not adjust for Georgia Southern DB Derrick Canteen transferring out despite him leading the team in passes defended (12 in 11 games) and being 5th in tackles, as the Eagles actually played better defensively in the two games that he didn’t start (one he barely played in and the other he missed). I also didn’t adjust for Buffalo being without their starting center.

Georgia Southern’s up tempo, pass-heavy attack averaged 31.4 points per game and 6.2 yppl in 11 games against FBS teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average attack. However, the Eagles have lost 3 starting wide receivers over the course of the season, including Amare Jones, who led the team in yards per target (9.2 YPT in FBS games), and Derwin Burgess, who still ranks second on the team in receiving yards despite missing the final two games. Marcus Sanders, who averages just 4.9 YPT, hasn’t had a pass thrown to him over the last two games, which helps some. I rate the Eagles’ offense at 0.3 yppl better than average heading into this game and they should thrive against a horrible Buffalo defense that’s been 0.7 yppl worse than average this season. The Bulls are not as bad defending the pass (0.4 yppp worse than average) and I do think that Georgia Southern will run more than usual given how bad Buffalo has been defending the run (1.0 yprp worse than average), as the Eagles have run more in games against bad run defenses. Even with more running I project 477 yards at 6.9 yppl for Georgia Southern.

Overall, my math favors GSU by 5.3 points, with a total of 67.6 points, but the Eagles apply to a 7-35 ATS bowl situation that plays against bad defensive teams as favorites (makes sense). I’ll pass this game.