Game Analysis

Georgia Southern (-7 ½)  32   ARKANSAS STATE  25

Both of these teams should be able to run their offenses pretty well. Georgia Southern’s run-heavy option attack should have success running a sub-par Arkansas State run defense (5.2 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.7 yprp against an average team). However, the worst part of the Red Wolves’ defense is defending the pass (8.2 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 7.1 yppp against an average defensive team) and Georgia Southern is not going to take full advantage of that weakness (the Eagles average just 15 pass plays per game).

The matchup is also in favor of Arkansas State when they have the ball. Georgia Southern has been very, very good defending the run (just 3.5 yprp allowed to FBS teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average team) but the Eagles have been terrible defending their opponent’s aerial attack, allowing 7.8 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would average 6.0 yppp against an average defense. The Arkansas State offense, meanwhile, is terrible running the ball (3.3 yprp), which they probably won’t try to do very often, but the Red Wolves are good throwing the ball (7.3 yppp) and should be able to take advantage of Georgia Southern’s porous pass defense.

My math model actually favors Georgia Southern by 3 points because of that matchup but the Eagles apply to a very good 61-18 ATS subset of a 243-145-12 ATS statistical matchup indicator while Arkansas State applies to a 35-95-2 ATS 1^st conference game situation. I’ll pass on this game.