Game Analysis

MISSISSIPPI (-7)  34   Georgia  27

I think Mississippi is clearly a better team than Georgia but dropping to 1-2 with last week’s close 43-48 loss to Alabama might be too deflating for the Rebels to overcome. That loss gives Ole’ Miss two come from ahead losses (the other was to Florida State) and basically knocks them out of playoff contention.

Mississippi has been very good offensively in averaging 6.6 yards per play and the 5.9 yppl they’ve allowed isn’t bad considering the tough schedule they’ve faced (Wofford was their other game but overall they’ve faced a schedule that is about 7 points tougher than average). Georgia played very well in their opening win against North Carolina, outplaying the Tarheels from the line of scrimmage 7.1 yards per play to 5.3 yppl, but the Bulldogs were flat against lowly Nicholls State and didn’t play well in last week’s lucky 28-27 win over Missouri (4.6 yppl to 6.5 yppl but +4 in turnovers). I still rate Georgia as a good team on both sides of the ball and the Bulldogs could have success offensively with Nick Chubb running the ball, just as Alabama did last week in racking up 355 ground yards at 7.9 yards per rushing play. Freshman quarterback Jacob Eason has been nothing special so far, completing just 55% of his passes and averaging a modest 6.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback), but he’s also been pretty good at avoiding freshman mistakes (only 2 interceptions).

My math favors Ole’ Miss by 9 points but Georgia applies to a 100-35-3 ATS statistical matchup indicator so I think it’s best to pass on this game.