Game Analysis

Georgia (-20)  31   Florida State  10

Florida State may have been deserving of a playoff spot but they were not one of the best 4 teams in the nation – even with star QB Jordan Travis. Now the Seminoles will be fighting not to get embarrassed in a game in which they’ll be without a handful of key players.

Florida State’s offense went from very good to mediocre to bad as they went from Heisman Trophy candidate QB Jordan Travis to backup Tate Rodemaker to third-stringer Brock Glenn, who totaled 30 yards on 25 pass plays in the ACC Championship game against Louisville. Brock can’t possibly be that bad, as he does have a scholarship to a good program and was rated as the #20 to #25 quarterback coming out of high school last year. Glenn will be without the team’s top 3 receivers, as wide receivers Coleman and Wilson (combined 91 catches for 1275 yards) and tight end Jaheim Bell (39 catches for 503 yards) have all opted out. The Seminoles will also be without their top two running backs, as top rusher Trey Benson opted out and #2 back Lawrence Toafili is out after having surgery. The #3 and #4 backs have averaged around 5.0 ypr in recent years for FSU, and about that this season against FBS opponents, and that would be a huge downgrade from Benson and Toafili, who combined for 1316 rushing yards at 6.1 ypr in 11 games against FBS foes.

Georgia’s defense was 1.4 yppl better than average this season and they will apparently be without just one starter for this game (LB Jamon, Dumas-Johnson, who started 9 games). I project only 204 yards at 3.6 yppl for FSU in this game assuming Glenn isn’t nearly as bad as he was against Louisville.

Florida State’s defense played at an elite level this season and was 1.3 yards per play better than average (adjusted for facing Miami and Florida’s backup QBs, and a few other adjustments) but the Seminoles will be without what amounts to 5 ½ starters, including star DE Jared Verse and top CB Renardo Green, who defended 14 passes. That unit should still be good, as there is still plenty of talent remaining, but I rate them at just 0.6 yppl better than average for this game.

Georgia’s offense was 1.7 yppl better than average with their starters in the game during the regular season and it looks like they’ll only be without one starting offensive linemen and TE Brock Bowers, who led the team in receiving. Bowers may not be much of a loss, as backup TE Oscar Delp averaged 9.5 yards on his 24 targets against FBS opponents, which is the same average as Bowers. Georgia’s pass offense was 0.3 yppp worse in the 3 games that Bowers missed so I’ll make that adjustment. I project 408 yards at 6.5 yppl for the Bulldogs.

After all the adjustments I get Georgia by 21.5 points and 41.9 total points but it’s possible that Glenn could be better than expected. I’ll pass.