Game Analysis

Florida (-7)  25   Georgia  14

Florida’s defense has played on half this season in which they were not completely dominating (the 2nd half against Tennessee) and the Gators’ D should control this game against a Georgia team with a punchless offense that has been a bit below average on a national scale this season (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Florida has allowed an average of just 12 points (6.8 points without the Tennessee game) to a schedule of offenses that are collectively just 0.1 yppl worse than Georgia, and I don’t see the Bulldogs having too many scoring chances in this game. It would take a few big runs by Georgia’s breakaway back Nick Chubb, but Chubb is not finding the holes like he did last season (just 5.1 ypr, which is mediocre).

Florida is no juggernaut on offense either (also 0.1 yppl worse than average with Del Rio at quarterback) and Georgia’s defense is solid (0.3 yppl better than average), but the Gators should score a decent number of points due to great field position set up by their defense and superior special teams. My model favors Florida by 11 in a low scoring game.