Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *UTAH STATE (+5) 31 Fresno State 27
It looks like Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene will be out this week, as he was again at practice in a walking boot on Wednesday. I think there is value on on Utah State even if Keene played and was 100% and there is certainly enough value for a Best Bet if he’s out.
Fresno suffered their first loss of the season last week at Wyoming and the Bulldogs aren’t particularly impressive for a 1-loss team, as they’ve been 0.5 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 4.7 yppl against an average defense).
Utah State, meanwhile, has been 1.0 yppl better than average offensively in 5 games against FBS competition (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), which excludes their 78 points on 591 yards at 8.6 yppl they had against Idaho State. The Aggies are just 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively, yielding 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they’ve been better than Fresno State this season. Cooper Legas is back at quarterback, which is an upgrade over McCae Hillstead.
Utah State is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +3).
Rush
-
Run Plays
27.2
30.2
-
Run Yards
123.2
114.5
-
YPRP
4.5
3.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
28.5
17.7
-
Pass Att
41.7
31.8
-
Comp %
68.4%
55.5%
-
Pass Yards
304.2
185.2
-
Sacks
2.7
2.3
-
Sack Yards
23.5
14.3
-
Sack %
6.0%
6.8%
-
Pass Plays
44.3
34.2
-
Net Pass Yards
280.7
170.8
-
YPPP
6.3
5.0
Total
-
Total Plays
71.5
64.3
-
Total Yards
403.8
285.3
-
YPPL
5.6
4.4
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.3
-
Int %
2.0%
4.2%
-
Fumbles
0.0
0.7
-
Turnovers
0.8
2.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.6
39.6
-
Run Yards
144.2
190.8
-
YPRP
4.9
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.8
18.8
-
Pass Att
36.6
32.0
-
Comp %
62.3%
58.8%
-
Pass Yards
312.8
227.6
-
Sacks
3.6
1.0
-
Sack Yards
23.2
9.0
-
Sack %
9.0%
3.0%
-
Pass Plays
40.2
33.0
-
Net Pass Yards
289.6
218.6
-
YPPP
7.2
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
69.8
72.6
-
Total Yards
433.8
409.4
-
YPPL
6.2
5.6
TO
-
Int
1.8
1.2
-
Int %
4.9%
3.8%
-
Fumbles
0.6
1.0
-
Turnovers
2.4
2.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 @ Purdue |
39-35 |
+3.5
W
|
33/30 |
131/109 |
4.0/3.6 |
0/0 |
32/17 |
45/30 |
359/254 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
7.6/8.5 |
490/363 |
6.1/6.1 |
| 09/09/23 Eastern Washington |
34-31 |
0.0
W
|
31/36 |
156/145 |
5.0/4.0 |
0/1 |
23/27 |
39/46 |
208/229 |
1/1 |
3/1 |
5.0/4.9 |
364/374 |
5.0/4.5 |
| 09/16/23 @ Arizona St. |
29-0 |
-3.0
W
|
28/22 |
136/71 |
4.9/3.2 |
0/3 |
32/17 |
49/37 |
214/161 |
0/5 |
6/5 |
3.9/3.8 |
350/232 |
4.2/3.6 |
| 09/23/23 Kent State |
53-10 |
-27.0
W
|
31/37 |
146/134 |
4.7/3.6 |
0/0 |
26/8 |
34/15 |
370/102 |
0/0 |
0/0 |
10.9/6.8 |
516/236 |
7.9/4.5 |
| 09/30/23 Nevada |
27-9 |
-24.5
L
|
24/24 |
107/89 |
4.5/3.7 |
0/0 |
28/17 |
37/35 |
269/86 |
2/2 |
2/7 |
6.9/2.0 |
376/175 |
6.0/2.7 |
| 10/07/23 @ Wyoming |
19-24 |
-6.0
L
|
16/32 |
63/139 |
3.9/4.3 |
0/0 |
30/20 |
46/28 |
264/193 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
5.4/6.7 |
327/332 |
5.0/5.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 @ Iowa |
14-24 |
+24.0
W
|
23/34 |
126/100 |
5.5/2.9 |
0/0 |
32/19 |
48/33 |
203/200 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
4.1/5.9 |
329/300 |
4.6/4.4 |
| 09/09/23 Idaho State |
78-28 |
0.0
W
|
38/28 |
388/110 |
10.2/3.9 |
0/1 |
22/34 |
28/53 |
203/319 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
7.0/5.8 |
591/429 |
8.8/5.2 |
| 09/15/23 @ Air Force |
21-39 |
+9.5
L
|
21/63 |
83/351 |
4.0/5.6 |
1/0 |
20/3 |
35/4 |
219/77 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
5.5/15.4 |
302/428 |
5.0/6.3 |
| 09/23/23 James Madison |
38-45 |
+5.0
L
|
25/36 |
114/163 |
4.6/4.5 |
0/3 |
26/23 |
48/34 |
367/353 |
3/2 |
5/1 |
6.9/10.1 |
481/516 |
6.2/7.3 |
| 09/30/23 @ Connecticut |
34-33 |
-4.0
L
|
30/41 |
108/237 |
3.6/5.8 |
0/0 |
17/23 |
23/32 |
309/243 |
2/1 |
1/1 |
12.9/7.4 |
417/480 |
7.7/6.5 |
| 10/07/23 Colorado St. |
44-24 |
+3.0
W
|
49/24 |
290/103 |
5.9/4.3 |
2/2 |
19/26 |
29/57 |
350/220 |
2/3 |
6/1 |
10.0/3.8 |
640/323 |
7.6/3.9 |
Fresno St.
@ 
Utah St.