Fresno St. @

Boise St.

Sat, Dec 3
FOX
1:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 315
Odds: Boise St. -3, Total: 54

Game Analysis

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Lean – BOISE STATE (-3 -115)  30   Fresno State  23

Fresno State has won 7 straight games since losing 20-40 at Boise in week 6 and having star QB Jake Haener back the last 5 games has obviously helped, but most of those 7 wins were against bad teams and the only decent team they faced was in a non-covering 32-28 home win over San Diego State.

The Bulldogs’ offense has been just 0.2 yards per play better than average the last 5 games with Haener back at quarterback (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average FBS offense), which is not as good as a Boise State defense that’s been 0.3 yppl better than average this season (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 against an average defense – adjusted for facing a couple of backup quarterbacks and playing San Diego State early in the season before the QB change).

Boise State’s offense is also better than their season rating, as the Broncos were horrible the first 4 weeks of the season (1.7 yppl worse than average) before changing offensive coordinators and the quarterback. Boise has won 7 of 8 games since the offensive changes and their run-oriented attack has averaged 6.7 yppl in 8 games against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. So, a much hype as Heaner gets, the Boise offense with Taylen Green at quarterback is 0.5 yppl better than the Fresno offense with Haener – and Green’s compensated yards per pass play (+0.9 yppp) is better than Haener’s +0.4 yppp rating.

Haener didn’t play in Fresno’s 20-40 week 6 loss at Boise but what hasn’t changed is Boise’s ability to run the ball against a Bulldogs’ defensive front that’s been 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average this season (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average team). Boise ran for 326 yards on 49 runs in the earlier meeting against that defense and the Broncos don’t play into the strength of the Fresno defense, which is defending the pass (0.4 yppp better than average).

Boise State has a better offense and a slightly better defense than Fresno and they’re playing at home. My math favors Boise by 5.8 points with current personnel and the Broncos apply to a 32-4-1 ATS subset of a 76-29-3 ATS situation.

I’ll lean with Boise State at -3 -115.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Fresno St.
  • Boise St.
FRES
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 29.6 33.7
  • Run Yards 149.5 173.7
  • YPRP 5.1 5.2




Pass





  • Pass Comp 24.4 15.9
  • Pass Att 34.2 30.3
  • Comp % 71.5% 52.6%
  • Pass Yards 277.3 190.4
  • Sacks 2.8 2.0
  • Sack Yards 16.3 13.8
  • Sack % 7.4% 6.2%
  • Pass Plays 36.9 32.3
  • Net Pass Yards 261.1 176.6
  • YPPP 7.1 5.5

Total

  • Total Plays 66.5 65.9
  • Total Yards 410.6 350.3
  • YPPL 6.2 5.3

TO


  • Int 0.8 0.8
  • Int % 2.2% 2.5%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.5
  • Turnovers 1.2 1.3
 
  • Points 30.9 20.8
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