Game Analysis
Lean – BOISE STATE (-3 -115) 30 Fresno State 23
Fresno State has won 7 straight games since losing 20-40 at Boise in week 6 and having star QB Jake Haener back the last 5 games has obviously helped, but most of those 7 wins were against bad teams and the only decent team they faced was in a non-covering 32-28 home win over San Diego State.
The Bulldogs’ offense has been just 0.2 yards per play better than average the last 5 games with Haener back at quarterback (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average FBS offense), which is not as good as a Boise State defense that’s been 0.3 yppl better than average this season (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 against an average defense – adjusted for facing a couple of backup quarterbacks and playing San Diego State early in the season before the QB change).
Boise State’s offense is also better than their season rating, as the Broncos were horrible the first 4 weeks of the season (1.7 yppl worse than average) before changing offensive coordinators and the quarterback. Boise has won 7 of 8 games since the offensive changes and their run-oriented attack has averaged 6.7 yppl in 8 games against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. So, a much hype as Heaner gets, the Boise offense with Taylen Green at quarterback is 0.5 yppl better than the Fresno offense with Haener – and Green’s compensated yards per pass play (+0.9 yppp) is better than Haener’s +0.4 yppp rating.
Haener didn’t play in Fresno’s 20-40 week 6 loss at Boise but what hasn’t changed is Boise’s ability to run the ball against a Bulldogs’ defensive front that’s been 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average this season (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average team). Boise ran for 326 yards on 49 runs in the earlier meeting against that defense and the Broncos don’t play into the strength of the Fresno defense, which is defending the pass (0.4 yppp better than average).
Boise State has a better offense and a slightly better defense than Fresno and they’re playing at home. My math favors Boise by 5.8 points with current personnel and the Broncos apply to a 32-4-1 ATS subset of a 76-29-3 ATS situation.
I’ll lean with Boise State at -3 -115.
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.6
33.7
-
Run Yards
149.5
173.7
-
YPRP
5.1
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
24.4
15.9
-
Pass Att
34.2
30.3
-
Comp %
71.5%
52.6%
-
Pass Yards
277.3
190.4
-
Sacks
2.8
2.0
-
Sack Yards
16.3
13.8
-
Sack %
7.4%
6.2%
-
Pass Plays
36.9
32.3
-
Net Pass Yards
261.1
176.6
-
YPPP
7.1
5.5
Total
-
Total Plays
66.5
65.9
-
Total Yards
410.6
350.3
-
YPPL
6.2
5.3
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.8
-
Int %
2.2%
2.5%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.2
1.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.2
32.8
-
Run Yards
203.6
142.4
-
YPRP
5.5
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.6
13.0
-
Pass Att
26.9
24.8
-
Comp %
61.6%
52.4%
-
Pass Yards
193.9
160.4
-
Sacks
1.2
2.1
-
Sack Yards
7.9
13.9
-
Sack %
4.2%
7.7%
-
Pass Plays
28.1
26.9
-
Net Pass Yards
186.0
146.5
-
YPPP
6.6
5.4
Total
-
Total Plays
65.3
59.8
-
Total Yards
389.6
288.9
-
YPPL
6.0
4.8
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.1
-
Int %
2.2%
4.3%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.5
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/22 Cal Poly |
35-7 |
0.0
W
|
30/29 |
186/108 |
6.2/3.7 |
0/0 |
36/20 |
42/38 |
363/209 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
8.1/5.4 |
549/317 |
7.3/4.7 |
09/10/22 Oregon St. |
32-35 |
0.0
L
|
28/34 |
144/195 |
5.1/5.7 |
0/0 |
29/14 |
46/27 |
348/203 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
7.4/7.0 |
492/398 |
6.6/6.3 |
09/17/22 @ USC |
17-45 |
+11.0
L
|
27/35 |
193/270 |
7.1/7.7 |
1/0 |
21/25 |
30/37 |
228/259 |
1/0 |
5/3 |
6.5/6.5 |
421/529 |
6.8/7.1 |
10/01/22 @ Connecticut |
14-19 |
-23.0
L
|
24/53 |
56/192 |
2.3/3.6 |
1/2 |
16/8 |
22/16 |
143/121 |
2/0 |
2/1 |
6.0/7.1 |
199/313 |
4.1/4.5 |
10/08/22 @ Boise St. |
20-40 |
+7.5
L
|
33/49 |
109/326 |
3.3/6.7 |
0/0 |
14/10 |
25/18 |
124/117 |
2/1 |
2/3 |
4.6/5.6 |
233/443 |
3.9/6.3 |
10/15/22 San Jose St. |
17-10 |
+8.0
W
|
30/18 |
123/82 |
4.1/4.6 |
2/0 |
22/22 |
32/45 |
223/249 |
1/1 |
4/5 |
6.2/5.0 |
346/331 |
5.2/4.9 |
10/22/22 @ New Mexico |
41-9 |
-10.0
W
|
50/24 |
285/109 |
5.7/4.5 |
0/0 |
19/9 |
29/17 |
225/29 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
7.8/1.5 |
510/138 |
6.5/3.1 |
10/29/22 San Diego St. |
32-28 |
-11.0
L
|
17/36 |
51/164 |
3.0/4.6 |
0/3 |
34/19 |
45/24 |
344/286 |
2/2 |
7/1 |
6.6/11.4 |
395/450 |
5.7/7.4 |
11/05/22 Hawaii |
55-13 |
-27.0
W
|
36/31 |
250/161 |
6.9/5.2 |
0/0 |
24/18 |
29/40 |
323/170 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
10.4/4.0 |
573/331 |
8.6/4.5 |
11/11/22 @ UNLV |
37-30 |
+9.5
W
|
23/38 |
77/227 |
3.3/6.0 |
1/0 |
28/18 |
36/34 |
306/164 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
8.3/4.7 |
383/391 |
6.4/5.4 |
11/19/22 @ Nevada |
41-14 |
-22.5
W
|
27/29 |
186/154 |
6.9/5.3 |
0/1 |
29/16 |
42/38 |
342/217 |
0/2 |
3/1 |
7.6/5.6 |
528/371 |
7.3/5.5 |
11/25/22 Wyoming |
30-0 |
-15.0
W
|
30/28 |
134/96 |
4.5/3.4 |
0/0 |
21/12 |
32/29 |
164/95 |
0/2 |
3/1 |
4.7/3.2 |
298/191 |
4.6/3.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/22 @ Oregon St. |
17-34 |
+2.5
L
|
29/36 |
110/179 |
3.8/5.0 |
2/1 |
23/15 |
36/24 |
168/259 |
3/2 |
2/0 |
4.4/10.8 |
278/438 |
4.1/7.3 |
09/09/22 @ New Mexico |
31-14 |
-17.0
T
|
34/21 |
162/68 |
4.8/3.2 |
0/0 |
16/9 |
27/28 |
160/55 |
1/0 |
2/6 |
5.5/1.6 |
322/123 |
5.1/2.2 |
09/17/22 Tennessee-Martin |
30-7 |
0.0
W
|
42/18 |
159/43 |
3.8/2.4 |
1/1 |
18/16 |
25/28 |
185/131 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
6.6/4.5 |
344/174 |
4.9/3.7 |
09/23/22 @ UTEP |
10-27 |
-16.0
L
|
18/53 |
86/214 |
4.8/4.0 |
0/0 |
13/10 |
34/11 |
93/108 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
2.7/9.0 |
179/322 |
3.4/5.0 |
09/30/22 San Diego St. |
35-13 |
-6.5
W
|
42/33 |
326/131 |
7.8/4.0 |
0/0 |
14/4 |
22/16 |
127/44 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
5.5/2.4 |
453/175 |
7.0/3.4 |
10/08/22 Fresno St. |
40-20 |
-7.5
W
|
49/33 |
326/109 |
6.7/3.3 |
0/0 |
10/14 |
18/25 |
117/124 |
1/2 |
3/2 |
5.6/4.6 |
443/233 |
6.3/3.9 |
10/22/22 @ Air Force |
19-14 |
+2.0
W
|
37/48 |
131/187 |
3.5/3.9 |
0/1 |
16/4 |
24/9 |
193/92 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
7.7/8.4 |
324/279 |
5.2/4.7 |
10/29/22 Colorado St. |
49-10 |
-25.5
W
|
46/15 |
235/33 |
5.1/2.2 |
1/0 |
24/16 |
30/26 |
305/154 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
10.2/5.0 |
540/187 |
7.1/4.1 |
11/05/22 BYU |
28-31 |
-8.0
L
|
29/30 |
114/157 |
3.9/5.2 |
1/0 |
17/29 |
23/42 |
210/377 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
8.8/9.0 |
324/534 |
6.1/7.4 |
11/12/22 @ Nevada |
41-3 |
-21.0
W
|
43/33 |
310/137 |
7.2/4.2 |
1/2 |
14/13 |
27/31 |
261/89 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
9.7/2.5 |
571/226 |
8.2/3.3 |
11/19/22 @ Wyoming |
20-17 |
-14.0
L
|
42/32 |
268/278 |
6.4/8.7 |
2/0 |
20/3 |
34/16 |
201/30 |
0/3 |
0/0 |
5.9/1.9 |
469/308 |
6.2/6.4 |
11/25/22 Utah St. |
42-23 |
-17.0
W
|
35/42 |
216/173 |
6.2/4.1 |
0/0 |
14/23 |
23/42 |
212/295 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
8.8/6.7 |
428/468 |
7.3/5.4 |