Game Analysis

Florida State (-5 ½)  31   SOUTH FLORIDA  28

If Florida State isn’t feeling sorry for themselves then the Seminoles should win this game. Losing 20-63 to Louisville is something unexpected, although I did pick the Seminoles to lose that game, but nobody has been able to keep Louisville under 60 points so far and the Cardinals have played better than any team in college football. South Florida is an update pick for a lot of people, and I can certainly see that happening given how fired up they’ll be for this game. The Bulls apply to a 95-35-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation while FSU applies to a negative 104-195-5 ATS situation based on how badly they were beaten last week. However, my ratings favor Florida State by 6 ½ points in this game based on this seasons’ games only (my preseason ratings would have had FSU by 10 ½ points). Last week’s result has actually supplied some line value in favor of FSU but the situation is strongly in favor of the Bulls and I’ll lean with the home dog.