Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – LOUISVILLE (+1)  34   Florida State  30

1-Star Best Bet at +3 or more

My preseason ratings ranked Florida State 3^rd and Louisville 8^th and so far these two teams have lived up to their high billing. Florida State has a great defense and new quarterback Deondre Francois has completed 69% of his passes while averaging 7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. The Seminoles also still have star running back Dalvin Cook, making them one of the most well rounded teams in the nation – excelling in both phases of offense, both phases of defense, and in special teams.

Louisville, meanwhile, has the new front runner for the Heisman Trophy at quarterback in sophomore Lamar Jackson, who has run for 334 yards (at 10.8 yards per run) and averaged 11.0 yards per pass play while accounting for 13 touchdowns in two games – 6 on the ground and 7 via the air. The Cardinals also have a sturdy defense that held a pretty good Syracuse attack to just 4.7 yards per play last week.

My preseason rating would have favored Louisville by 1 point in this game and my updated ratings favor the Cardinals by 1 ½ points, so I see value with the small home dog. I also see this as a very good situation for Louisville, who apply to an 81-28-2 ATS home momentum situation while FSU applies to a 26-74-1 ATS situation that is based on their two impressive wins. I’ll consider Louisville a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d upgrade the Cardinals to a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 or more.