Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Florida State (+2 -105)  33   CLEMSON  27

Florida State is better than Clemson defensively and much better than the Tigers on offense.

The Seminoles have been consistently good on offense, even in the 4 games that they lost. Excluding the blowout wins over East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10), the FSU offense has averaged 6.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team (+1.2. yppl rating) and they were pretty close to that good even in their 4 losses (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl).

Clemson’s defense has only been 0.4 yppl better than average this season (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense) and they’ve given up an average of 434 yards at 6.4 yppl the last two weeks to better than average offensively teams SMU and Duke. I project 454 yards at 6.4 yppl for the Seminoles in this game.

Clemson’s offense has been 0.6 yppl better than average in the 7 games with Cade Klubnik at quarterback (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) but Florida State defense has been 0.7 yppl better than average in 6 games against legitimate teams (once again excluding Ken State and E. Tex A&M). FSU’s slight edge is mitigated by this game being played in Clemson and I project a modest 398 yards at 5.7 yppl for the Tigers.

Florida State should be favored in this game and only their troubles in road games (0-2 SU) has kept me from making the ‘Noles a 2-Star Best Bet. Although, FSU actually outplayed Virginia and Stanford in those road losses 959 yards at 6.1 yppl to 733 yards at 4.9 yppl. They should outplay Clemson from the line of scrimmage in this game too and I expect a the Seminoles to come out on top.

Florida State is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more (Strong Opinion to -1)