Game Analysis

Alabama (-7)  26   Florida State  20

Alabama and Florida State are my top two rated teams heading into this season but there is still a significant gap between the Crimson Tide and the rest of the elite teams. I don’t expect Alabama to be as good this season as they were in 2016, as their defense is likely to regress a bit after putting up incredible numbers last season. The Tide allowed just 4.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive unit, which ranks as coach Saban’s second best defense (his 2011 ‘D’ was 2.5 yppl better than average). Then again, this year’s defense has the same number of returning starters, 5, as last year’s defense had and my algorithm only rates this year’s stop unit at 0.2 yppl worse than last year. The Alabama offense was 1.2 yppl better than average last season and all the running backs and sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts return. Hurts was the SEC Offensive Players of the Year in 2016 but he struggled to throw the ball against elite pass defenses last season – averaging just 4.4 yards per pass play against LSU, Florida, Washington, and Clemson (all top-10 in pass defenses that would combine to allow 4.6 yppp to an average quarterback).

Florida State ranked 10^th in my pass defense ratings last season and the Seminoles return 3 of their 4 starting defensive backs from that team. The other starter is FS Derwin James, who only started 2 games last season as a freshman but is considered their best defensive player. FSU might have the best pass defense in the nation this season and Hurts still hasn’t proven he can have success against a good secondary. Alabama will most likely have to depend on the run (unless Hurts has gotten a lot better throwing the ball into tight windows) and my ratings project a robust 5.7 yards per rushing play against what should be a good Florida State defensive front. Overall, my ratings project a modest 5.4 yards per play for the Tide in this game.

Florida State also has a sophomore quarterback with a year as a starter under his belt, as Deondre Francois returns after posting impressive numbers (7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB) despite getting sacked 34 times. Francois should be improved but the rushing attack is likely to regress a bit without stud Dalvin Cook toting the rock over 20 times per game. As always, FSU has some highly regarded running back talent in the pipeline so the Seminoles should still be an elite running team and overall I rate their offense as 6^th best in the nation heading into this season. Alabama’s #1 ranked defense should still have the advantage, however, and my ratings project just 5.0 yards per play for Florida State tonight.

I think both defenses will have an advantage in this game and overall my ratings favor Alabama by 6 points. I certainly don’t mind leaning a bit with the Seminoles given that Hurts was relatively worse against better defensive teams last season (-0.2 yppp rating against top-10 pass defenses compared to a +1.2 yppp overall rating). This should be a great game to watch but not a great game to bet. However, if you feel compelled to play it then the under looks like the best choice for a wager.