Game Analysis

Michigan (-6)  29   Florida  22

Saturday, 9 am Pacific

Michigan will be down 4 starters in this game but only one really makes a difference. Running back Karan Higdon, linebacker Devin Bush, defensive linemen Rashan Gary have all quit on their team to selfishly prepare for the NFL draft and and offensive right tackle Juwann Bushell-Beatty, who has missed most of the last two games is not ready to play and will also miss this game. Losing Higdon is not an issue given that his mediocre 5.3 yards per rush average is lower than the combined 5.7 ypr average of Chris Evans and Tru Wilson. Gary missed 3 games earlier in the season (weeks 6 through 8) and Michigan’s compensated defensive numbers in those 3 games was actually better than their season rating, so I’ll assume he makes no difference. Devin Bush, however, is the Wolverines’ leading tackler, ranks second on the team in tackles for loss with 9 and broke up 6 passes, which is good for a linebacker. The 1^st-Team All-American is projected to be a first-round NFL draft pick, so his absence should have an impact – although linebackers in general are not as important as the other position groups on defense. I’ve adjusted the maximum amount for a linebacker, which works out to a bit less than 1 point, but Michigan still has a very strong defense that rated at 1.5 yards per play better than average in the regular season despite giving up 8.8 yards per play to Ohio State. Florida’s offense made incredible strides this season and averaged 6.2 yards per play against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack. Michigan’s defense without Bush makes this a pretty fair fight and I project 312 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Gators.

Michigan’s offense doesn’t get a lot of love but the Wolverines are very efficient when they have the ball, averaging 6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Florida’s defense is just as good however, as the Gators yielded 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average stop unit. The math projects 5.7 yards per play and 393 yards for the Wolverines.

While the yards per play projections are pretty close (5.74 to 5.59 yppl) Michigan is projected to run considerably more plays, which has been the case for Wolverines all season (+11.3 average play differential). Both squads are equally excellent in special teams and overall the math favors Michigan by 5.5 points with a total of 50.3 points after adding 2.4 points for playing a dome. Michigan does apply to a 47-17-4 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on their bad loss to Ohio State so I added a couple of points and will pick Michigan by 7 points. I still can’t even recommend a lean though.