Game Analysis
Lean – Over (67) – LSU (-14.5) 45 Florida 31
Jayden Daniels may not risk getting another concussion by running the ball as aggressively as he normally does but I have LSU by 14.3 points with a total of 75.2 points even if Daniels doesn’t run at all.
LSU has the best offense in the nation, by far, and they’ve averaged 8.3 yppl (with starters in) and 41 points per game facing a schedule of FBS defenses that is 0.6 yppl better than average. Florida’s defense is 0.7 yppl worse than average and the Gators have allowed 7.1 yppl in 5 games against SEC teams. LSU would be projected to score close to 50 points against that defense if Daniels’ running isn’t hindered and they should still get around 45 points without the legs of their dynamic quarterback.
Florida has a good offense that has been 0.9 yppl better than average (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl against an average team and LSU’s defense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average and has allowed 39 points or more to all 4 better than average offensive teams that they’ve faced this season (FSU, Ole Miss, Missouri and Bama).
Rush
-
Run Plays
26.3
29.5
-
Run Yards
142.1
169.9
-
YPRP
5.4
5.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
26.3
17.4
-
Pass Att
35.8
28.1
-
Comp %
73.4%
61.8%
-
Pass Yards
277.5
226.4
-
Sacks
3.3
1.8
-
Sack Yards
22.1
10.4
-
Sack %
8.3%
5.9%
-
Pass Plays
39.0
29.9
-
Net Pass Yards
255.4
216.0
-
YPPP
6.5
7.2
Total
-
Total Plays
65.3
59.4
-
Total Yards
397.5
385.9
-
YPPL
6.1
6.5
TO
-
Int
0.4
0.4
-
Int %
1.1%
1.4%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.4
-
Turnovers
0.9
0.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.4
33.1
-
Run Yards
207.5
187.1
-
YPRP
6.6
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.9
18.6
-
Pass Att
31.3
30.3
-
Comp %
70.0%
61.6%
-
Pass Yards
338.8
250.3
-
Sacks
2.3
2.0
-
Sack Yards
10.6
12.0
-
Sack %
6.7%
6.2%
-
Pass Plays
33.5
32.3
-
Net Pass Yards
328.1
238.3
-
YPPP
9.8
7.4
Total
-
Total Plays
64.9
65.4
-
Total Yards
535.6
425.4
-
YPPL
8.3
6.5
TO
-
Int
0.5
1.0
-
Int %
1.6%
3.3%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.1
-
Turnovers
0.8
1.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/23 @ Utah |
11-24 |
+5.0
L
|
15/27 |
61/124 |
4.1/4.6 |
0/0 |
31/15 |
44/23 |
286/165 |
1/0 |
5/0 |
5.8/7.2 |
347/289 |
5.4/5.8 |
09/09/23 McNeese State |
49-7 |
0.0
W
|
51/24 |
329/68 |
6.5/2.8 |
1/0 |
18/7 |
23/14 |
233/44 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
10.1/2.8 |
562/112 |
7.6/2.8 |
09/16/23 Tennessee |
29-16 |
+6.5
W
|
39/28 |
202/118 |
5.2/4.2 |
0/0 |
19/20 |
24/34 |
156/279 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
6.0/8.0 |
358/397 |
5.5/6.3 |
09/23/23 Charlotte |
22-7 |
-28.0
L
|
31/24 |
160/112 |
5.2/4.7 |
2/0 |
20/14 |
23/25 |
240/104 |
0/0 |
3/4 |
9.2/3.6 |
400/216 |
7.0/4.1 |
09/30/23 @ Kentucky |
14-33 |
+1.0
L
|
26/36 |
96/329 |
3.7/9.1 |
0/0 |
25/9 |
30/20 |
217/69 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
6.6/3.5 |
313/398 |
5.3/7.1 |
10/07/23 Vanderbilt |
38-14 |
-18.5
W
|
27/17 |
230/75 |
8.5/4.4 |
0/1 |
34/19 |
41/34 |
265/263 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
6.0/7.3 |
495/338 |
7.0/6.4 |
10/14/23 @ South Carolina |
41-39 |
+2.0
W
|
26/29 |
126/178 |
4.8/6.1 |
0/1 |
30/23 |
48/30 |
405/302 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
7.9/9.4 |
531/480 |
6.9/7.9 |
10/28/23 Georgia |
20-43 |
+14.0
L
|
21/35 |
142/174 |
6.8/5.0 |
1/0 |
25/19 |
34/28 |
200/315 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
5.3/11.3 |
342/489 |
5.8/7.8 |
11/04/23 Arkansas |
36-39 |
-3.5
L
|
25/40 |
120/249 |
4.8/6.2 |
1/1 |
26/20 |
42/31 |
274/231 |
0/1 |
3/5 |
6.1/6.4 |
394/480 |
5.6/6.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/23 @ Florida St. |
24-45 |
-2.5
L
|
23/33 |
139/139 |
6.0/4.2 |
1/0 |
22/24 |
37/32 |
321/359 |
1/1 |
4/0 |
7.8/11.2 |
460/498 |
7.2/7.7 |
09/09/23 Grambling State |
72-10 |
0.0
W
|
47/27 |
305/186 |
6.5/6.9 |
0/1 |
24/15 |
32/31 |
317/152 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
9.6/4.8 |
622/338 |
7.8/5.7 |
09/16/23 @ Mississippi St. |
41-14 |
-9.5
W
|
37/16 |
176/112 |
4.8/7.0 |
0/0 |
32/12 |
37/29 |
372/82 |
0/0 |
2/5 |
9.5/2.4 |
548/194 |
7.2/3.9 |
09/23/23 Arkansas |
34-31 |
-17.5
L
|
27/33 |
198/164 |
7.3/5.0 |
0/0 |
20/21 |
29/31 |
311/262 |
1/2 |
2/4 |
10.0/7.5 |
509/426 |
8.8/6.3 |
09/30/23 @ Mississippi |
49-55 |
-3.0
L
|
33/49 |
242/317 |
7.3/6.5 |
1/0 |
27/26 |
36/39 |
395/389 |
0/0 |
4/0 |
9.9/10.0 |
637/706 |
8.7/8.0 |
10/07/23 @ Missouri |
42-39 |
-6.0
L
|
40/19 |
286/151 |
7.2/7.9 |
0/0 |
16/29 |
23/46 |
274/375 |
0/2 |
2/2 |
11.0/7.8 |
560/526 |
8.6/7.9 |
10/14/23 Auburn |
48-18 |
-11.0
W
|
36/31 |
243/153 |
6.8/4.9 |
0/0 |
20/15 |
27/27 |
321/145 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
11.1/5.0 |
564/298 |
8.7/5.0 |
10/21/23 Army |
62-0 |
-32.5
W
|
32/42 |
166/158 |
5.2/3.8 |
0/1 |
18/7 |
27/15 |
363/87 |
0/3 |
1/1 |
13.0/5.4 |
529/245 |
8.8/4.2 |
11/04/23 @ Alabama |
28-42 |
+3.0
L
|
23/42 |
210/303 |
9.1/7.2 |
0/0 |
20/15 |
34/23 |
268/207 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
7.7/8.3 |
478/510 |
8.2/7.6 |