Game Analysis

UCF (-13)  47   Florida Atlantic  31

Neither of these teams is as good as they were last season. As I’ve previously written about, Florida Atlantic’s offense is not nearly as explosive without WR Kalib Woods. Woods missed the first half of last season due to a suspension and the offense exploded when he started playing in week 10. In the first 8 games without Woods the Owls were a below average passing team, averaging just 5.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average team. Woods caught his first pass in week 10 and from that point on the FAU aerial attack was 2.1 yppp better than average (8.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp) while Woods averaged a ridiculously good 25.8 yards per reception and 14.4 yards per pass targeted at him (619 yards on 43 targets in 6 games). The next highest yards per target on the team was a modest 8.4 ypt, so not having Woods to catch deep passes and open things up underneath will surely have a negative effect on the Owls’ pass attack this season and new starting quarterback Chris Robison has averaged a modest 12.5 yards per completion. Robison has completed 69% of his passes and has averaged 7.9 yards per pass play but he’s faced two horrible pass defenses (Air Force and Bethune Cookman) and averaged just 4.1 yppp against Oklahoma before the Sooners pulled their starter with a 56-0 lead. FAU’s offense is pretty mediocre this season, as is UCF’s defense, but the Owls will have a lot of possessions in which to try to score points with both teams playing at a fast pace.

UCF’s attack can’t possibly be as good as it was last season and McKenzie Milton’s 8.3 yards per pass play is nothing special teams given the quality of the defenses he’s faced (UConn and South Carolina State). The Black Knights should perform well offensively against an FAU defense that has struggled. Giving up 11 yards per play to Oklahoma was eye-opening and seemingly decent performances against Air Force (5.4 yppl allowed) and Bethune-Cookman (5.7 yppl allowed) aren’t good when taking into account the quality of those offenses. Florida Atlantic has allowed 68% completions and Milton should be able to pick them apart in this game.

My ratings favor UCF by 16 points and I’ll lean slightly with UCF at -14 or less, although betting this game is more of a gamble than a good investment.