Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – (394) *UAB (+1)  34   Florida Atlantic  26

If UAB head coach Trent Dilfer had hair he’d be pulling it out. It must be so frustrating to have a team that has outgained their opponents for the season but has been outscored by an average of 8.6 points per game with just 2 wins in 8 contests.

UAB’s offense has been 0.2 yards per play better than average with starting quarterback Jacob Zeno (excluding garbage time) and he’s been cleared to play after being a late scratch against Memphis before their bye week. The Blazers have an advantage over an FAU defense that’s been 0.1 yppl worse than average this season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense).

UAB also has the advantage with the Owls have the ball, as FAU rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively in Daniel Richardson’s 5 starts at quarterback (-0.9 yppl in all games) while the Blazers’ defense has been just 0.4 yppl worse than average (6.4 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team). That unit isn’t nearly as bad as the 42.1 points per game that they’ve given up.

The math projects UAB with 6.4 yppl to 5.3 yppl for FAU and with an advantage in the number of plays from scrimmage. All the Blazers need to do is stop giving up 55% 3rd-down conversions, which is extremely high. That number should come way down going forward and I expect that was something the coaching staff addressed during the bye week. We’ll see.

The math model is calling for a 2-Star play here but I’ll invest just 1-Star in case the Blazers’ extremely bad 3rd-down defense continues to be an issue, although it is highly likely to regress down towards a reasonable level. I’d still have UAB by 1.5 points even if they continue to be on the extreme end of the scale in 3rd-down defense.

UAB is a 1-Star Best Bet at -1.5 or better (Strong Opinion at -2).