Game Analysis

Arkansas State (-2.5)  30   Florida International  29

Saturday, December 21 – 2:30 pm Pacific

More was expected of FIU this season, but veteran coach Butch Davis got his team to a bowl at 6-6 thanks to a week 13 win over Miami-Florida as a 20-point dog. Arkansas State reached 7 wins thanks to the arm of backup quarterback Layne Hatcher and SBC Player of the Year WR Omar Bayless. Hatcher took over in week 5 after starting Logan Bonner was injured and the Arkansas State offense improved. Hatcher completed 68% of his passes and averaged 8.4 yards per pass play in his 8 starts (against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average QB) and his compensated numbers were 1.1 yppp better than Bonner’s compensated stats. The Red Wolves’ rush attack is sub-par (4.7 yprp against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp) but overall the attack is 0.3 yards per play better than average with Hatcher at quarterback. Arkansas State is projected to rack up 438 yards at 6.3 yppl against an FIU defense that’s 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense).

FIU’s attack is led by veteran quarterback James Morgan, who regressed from a solid 2018 season and averaged only 6.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Morgan makes up for his lack of big-plays by throwing just 3 interceptions all season (and only 10 in two full seasons) but the Panthers are still pretty bad offensively, as they are 0.8 yards per rushing play worse than average and 0.9 yards per play worse than average overall (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average offense). Arkansas State’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average, which is actually 0.2 yppl better than what FIU has faced on average this season and the math projects only 391 yards at 5.3 yppl for the Panthers in this game.

Arkansas State is better overall from the line of scrimmage and the math favors the Red Wolves by 3 points even with FIU having an edge in projected turnovers and special teams (Arkansas State has a good kicker but is bad in covering kicks). That math is pretty neutral on this game but FIU does apply to a 58-24-3 ATS bowl situation and Butch Davis is 7-2 ATS in bowl games while Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson is just 1-4 straight up and 1-4 ATS in bowl games. I still recommend passing on this game, as there is not enough of an edge to make the side or the total a profitable wager.