Game Analysis

Note: Temple was released to subscribers as a Strong Opinion early in the week when the line was +13 and the Owls are now out of range, although I still favor that side at +10 points.

Strong Opinion – TEMPLE (+13)  24   East Carolina  31

Temple turned to E.J. Warner at quarterback midway though their second game and they unleased him starting in week 5, throwing the ball 69% of the time in their last 7 games. The Owls are a horrible running team, so throwing more often has helped the offense even with Warner being a below average quarterback (0.5 yards per pass play worse than average). Throwing the ball 69% of the time will work particularly well against an ECU defense that defends the run very well (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) but has allowed 65% completions and 7.8 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 6.3 yppp against an average defense. An offense that throws the ball 69% of the time makes the Pirates’ defense 0.6 yards per play worse than it has been with their their opponents combine to call pass plays only 52% of the time. That equates to about 4 points or matchup value, which is not in the line on this game (or at least wasn’t when I released the play).

East Carolina has a good offense that rates at 0.7 yppl better than average but Temple’s defense is decent, as they’ve been just 0.2 yppl worse than average despite a game against UCF in which they gave up 70 points and 10.0 yppl. The Owls’ median defensive performance has been 0.4 yppl better than average and they’ve allowed more than 30 points just twice all season (both on the road).

In addition to the line value the Owls apply to a 23-3 ATS subset of a 68-24-3 ATS final game big home underdog angle. Temple was a Strong Opinion at +12 points or more only and the line has dropped to +10.