Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NC State (-7)  37   East Carolina  24

I would have favored NC State by 8 points if each team had the available roster that they neded the season with but East Carolina’s transfers and opt outs are damaging to the Pirates while NC State’s lone loss, WR KC Concepcion, should make the Wolfpack offense better.

East Carolina finished the regular season 4-1 after firing their head coach and naming Blake Harrell the interim coach and he was rewarded with the full-time job. The Pirates were a below average team on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense while also being -7.5 in play differential.

The ECU offense got better when Katin Houser took over at quarterback, as he is 0.6 yards per pass play better than Jake Garcia (adjusted for opposing pass defenses faced) while also throwing fewer interceptions (Garcia has 3 more picks on 35 fewer passes). The offense will miss receiver Chase Sowell, who averaged 11.9 yards per target in 9 games against FBS opponents. Leading pass catcher Winston Wright Jr. is also out but his 7.4 yards per target will not be tough to replace. However, Wright is also an All-American kick returner (26.8 KR average) and his special teams value is worth 0.4 points. I rate the Pirates’ attack at 0.3 yppl worse than average with Houser but without Sowell.

NC State’s defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average but all the players that started the second half of season are expected to play as potential opt-out Davin Vann (6.5 sacks and 14 total tackles for loss) is listed on the freshly released depth chart. LB Caden Fordham, who started the first 6 games, is still out with an injury but the defense was better in the 6 games without him (0.2 yppl worse than average) – although I’ll use the season rating in my model.

NC State’s offense was 0.3 yppl better than average in FBS games this season and quarterback CJ Bailey did a good job filling in for injured veteran transfer Grayson McCall. The Wolfpack offense will be without leading pass catcher KC Concepcion but that is addition by subtraction, as maybe they’ll stop running all those ridiculous short routes and let Bailey throw the ball down the field more. Concepcion averaged only 7.7 yards per catch against FBS competition and a horrible 4.4 yards per target with less than a 40% success rate. The rest of the wide receivers combined to average 8.5 yards per target and a 50% success rate so not forcing the ball to Concepcion should be a positive, as he managed to catch only 57% of the passes thrown to him, which is particularly bad when considering how short most of those throws were. I project the NC State pass attack to be 0.6 yards per pass play better without Concepcion, who also averaged just 1.9 yards on 19 runs this season.

The East Carolina defense will be without 2 starters in CB Brown-Murray, who led the team in passes defended, and LB Barker, who led the Pirates in total tackles for loss with 12. Those are significant losses, and I rate the ECU defense at 0.6 yppl worse than average heading into this game.

I favor NC State by 13 points with 61.5 total points and NC State is a Strong Opinion at -7 -115 odds or better.