Game Analysis

Lean – NORTH CAROLINA (+7)  24   Duke  27

North Carolina’s struggling offense (0.6 yppl worse than average) should find some life against a Duke defense that’s been 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average defense).

The Blue Devils have a good offense (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) but they’ll be slowed by a solid UNC defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average.

Duke has lost consecutive games as favorites and apply to a 10-38-2 ATS situation that applies to road favorites after consecutive upset losses. The math only favors Duke by 3.7 points and the situation favors the home dog here.

North Carolina is a Lean at +7 or more.