Game Analysis

Lean – Duke (+9.5)  21   Georgia Tech  26

Lean – Georgia Tech Team Total Under (31)

Duke’s defense has been one of the best in the nation through 5 weeks, as the Blue Devils have yielded just 19.5 points and only 4.5 yards per play to 4 FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense (and held a decent Elon offense to 3 points and 2.3 yppl). Georgia Tech has been very good offensively in terms of yards per play (1.3 yppl better than average) but they’ve scored a model average of 23.7 points against the 3 decent defensive teams that they faced (Florida State, Syracuse, and Louisville) and Duke’s defense rates better than all of them. The Blue Devils haven’t given up more than 21 points in any of their games, including giving up just 20 points to a good North Carolina offense (good with Criswell at QB) last week. Duke’s defense has been better than Georgia Tech’s offense and I think they’ll keep the Yellow Jackets in check.

Duke’s offense has been 0.6 yppl below average but Georgia Tech’s defense has been nearly as bad (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl). These teams are about the same from a compensated yards per play perspective (Duke with a slight edge actually) but the Yellow Jackets have better special teams and are at home.

All the value I see with Duke is on Georgia Tech’s offense not scoring as much as expected.