Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Duke (+3.5)  31   CLEMSON  28

Cade Klubnik returns this week after missing the loss to SMU before the Tigers’ bye week. Klubnik won’t have WR Byrant Wesco Jr. to throw to, as he was injured early in the SMU loss and is out the rest of the season. Wesco averaged 12.2 yards on his 44 targets, which is by far the best of the team. The other wide receivers have combined for just 7.0 yards per target (excluding the 75-yard pass thrown by another WR on a trick play vs UNC). Wesco’s injury is a significant loss to the aerial attack and Clemson is averaging just 4.5 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team). Clemson has only been 0.3 yppl better than average on offense this season (+0.5 yppl with Klubnik) but I have that unit rated as average without Klubnik’s only better than average receiver (in terms of yards per target).

Duke’s defense is 0.1 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 6.1 yppl) and I project 409 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Tigers in this game.

Duke’s offense is projected to gain 439 yards at 6.2 yppl, as the Blue Devils’ consistently good attack (6.1 yppl or more in every game) rates at 1.1 yppl better than average (6.7 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while the Clemson defense has been just 0.5 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team (adjusted for mostly facing Angeli when they played Syracuse).

The Blue Devils are the better team, and Duke is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -110 or better.