Game Analysis

HOUSTON (-27 ½)  39   Connecticut  7

Connecticut’s offense has averaged 21.3 points, which doesn’t seem too horrible (the national average is 28.6 points). However, the Huskies have faced 4 bad defensive teams and their 4.9 yards per play has come against teams that would allow 6.6 yppl to an average offensive team. U Conn has no chance against a very strong Houston defense that’s allowed just 14 points and 286 yards per game at 4.8 yppl to 3 FBS teams that would combine to average 30.2 points and 5.8 yppl against an average defensive unit. My math model projects only 3.1 yppl for Connecticut in this game as the Huskies get their first taste of what a real defense looks like.

Houston’s offense is moving the ball at a better than average clip (6.0 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) despite not getting their rushing attack in gear yet (only 4.3 yards per rushing play). Connecticut defends the run very well (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average team) but Cougars’ quarterback Greg Ward III should pick apart a horrible Huskies’ secondary that’s surrendered an average of 8.0 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would average a combined 6.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Houston prefers to run the ball more than they throw it but Ward should be able to move the chains consistently with his arm and his legs when forced into 3^rd down passing situations.

Overall my math model favors Houston by 28 ½ points and the Cougars apply to a very strong 171-75-4 ATS big home favorite momentum situation that enhances the chances of a 4 touchdown margin or higher.