Colorado St. @

Arkansas

Sat, Sep 14
1:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 155
Odds: Arkansas -9.5, Total: 64

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Note: This play was released to my subscribers as a Best Bet. The line has since moved so pay attention to the line constraint at the bottom of the write-up.

Best Bet – **OVER (61) – ARKANSAS (-9.5)  42   Colorado State  28

I was surprised when Ben Hicks was chosen to be Arkansas’ quarterback over former Texas A&M starter Nick Starkel. I believe Hicks won the job because he was coach Chad Morris’ quarterback at SMU. Hicks was just mediocre with Morris at SMU in 2017, averaging 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback, and he was worse last season (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) before transferring to Arkansas. Starkel, meanwhile, was the best passing quarterback Texas A&M has had since Johnny Manziel but he lost his job to Kellen Mond, who is a better runner. Starkel took Mond’s job as the starter at A&M midway through the 2017 season and he averaged 8.3 yppp (against teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average QB), which was a huge upgrade over Mond’s 5.1 yppp average early that season (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp). However, Starkel then lost his job to Mond before the start of last season, as new coach Jimbo Fisher liked Mond’s mobility and thought he’d improve as a passer. Mond did improve but he was just 0.8 yppp better than average for the Aggies last season, which wasn’t close to as good as Starkel was in his time at A&M (2.3 yppp better than average in his 236 pass plays).

Starkel gets another chance to show his talent after being named the starter this week following his 17 of 24 passing for 201 yards in relief of Hicks last week against Ole Miss. Hicks had been horrible in his 1 ½ games, averaging just 4.6 yppp against FCS team Portland State in the opener and just 4.8 yppp last week before getting pulled. I feel that Hicks’ poor performances has Arkansas’ offense undervalued in this game and I expect Starkel to carve up a soft Colorado State defense that gave up 232 yards on just 20 pass plays to Colorado in week 1 before playing better against a weak throwing FCS team (Western Illinois) last week. The Rams are certainly better defensively than they were last season when they were among the worst defensive teams in the nation (1.7 yards per play worse than average). However, CSU was also bad defensively in 2017 (1.3 yppl worse than average) and their average defensive rating in coach Mike Bobo’s 4 seasons is 1.1 yppl worse than average. I don’t think they’ll be much better than that this season and the 7.9 yards per play they gave up in week 1 to the only FBS team they’ve faced certainly validates my opinion that the Rams are still a bad defensive team – even if they are improved.

Colorado State does look much better offensively this season with a healthy and confident Collin Hill at quarterback. Hill had a very promising first half of his freshman season in 2016, averaging 7.5 yards per pass play in his 4 starts before suffering an ACL injury that kept him out for one and a half seasons. Hill got some snaps early last season but clearly didn’t have his confidence – although his performance level improved as the season progressed (he started the final 4 games). Hill had reportedly regained his ‘swag’ this summer and so far that’s certainly proven to be the case. Hill has completed 71% of his passes while averaging 8.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB). I don’t think Hill will continue to play at that yppp level, as that average is enhanced by a 77-yard pass to running back Marvin Kinsey. However, Hill would still be 1.0 yppp better than average so far this season without that 77-yard play and Colorado State’s pass attack had been 1.0 yppp better than average in 2017 and 1.4 yppp better than average in 2016 – so being 1.0 yppp better than average is not out of the norm for the Rams. I conservatively rate Hill at 0.7 yppp better than average but I could be underestimating him based on his first two games of 2019. The CSU rushing attack certainly looks better with Kinsey as the main ball carrier and the occasional fly sweep by speedy freshman receiver Dante Wright, who has 92 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4 runs in addition to averaging 15.0 yards per pass thrown to him (180 yards on 12 targets). I don’t expect Wright to keep averaging 23 yards per run but Colorado State’s rushing attack was average or better for 5 consecutive seasons before last season (0.8 yards per rushing play worse than average) and they should be close to average this season.

Overall, I rate CSU at 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively and the Rams should score a decent amount of points against a Razorbacks’ defense that is better than average defending the run but is once against struggling to defend the pass. Arkansas allowed 8.1 yards per pass play last season and I projected the Razorbacks at 0.5 yppp worse than average this season. The defense had no trouble defending Portland State in week 1 but that unit gave up 6.5 yards per play and 8.9 yards per pass play to Mississippi last week. I actually rate Arkansas’ defense at just 0.1 yards per play worse than average but Colorado State’s offense has the advantage in that matchup.

Both of these teams run their offense at a pretty standard pace but Arkansas should move the ball extremely well with Starkel at quarterback against a soft Colorado State defense and the Rams’ attack, with a healthy Collin Hill at quarterback, have the edge over the Arkansas defense. I look for a high scoring game and I’ll take the Over in a 2-Star Best Bet at 61 points or less and for 1-Star up to 63 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colorado St.
  • Arkansas
CSU
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 30.2 37.4
  • Run Yards 128.1 193.9
  • YPRP 4.8 5.6




Pass





  • Pass Comp 24.2 16.2
  • Pass Att 39.4 26.0
  • Comp % 61.4% 62.5%
  • Pass Yards 291.0 215.0
  • Sacks 2.6 2.4
  • Sack Yards 17.4 14.4
  • Sack % 6.2% 8.3%
  • Pass Plays 41.9 28.4
  • Net Pass Yards 273.6 200.6
  • YPPP 6.5 7.1

Total

  • Total Plays 72.1 65.7
  • Total Yards 419.1 408.9
  • YPPL 5.8 6.2

TO


  • Int 1.4 0.2
  • Int % 3.6% 0.9%
  • Fumbles 0.6 0.5
  • Turnovers 2.0 0.7
 
  • Points 34.3 40.0
Share This