Game Analysis
AIR FORCE (-14.5) 41 Colorado State 22
Colorado State is the worst defensive team that Air Force has faced this season and the Falcons averaged 39.3 points against the 3 really bad defensive teams they’ve faced so far (Navy, UNLV, and New Mexico). Navy knows how to defend the option but Air Force ran for an average of 428 yards at 7.2 yards per running play against UNLV and New Mexico and Colorado State is also horrible defending the run (6.0 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yprp against an average defense).
CSU’s offense is worse with Collin Hill at quarterback, although he has been better the last 3 weeks as the starter than he was in multiple relief appearances early in the season. The math favors Air Force by 17.5 points and Colorado State applies to a 13-52 ATS situation that plays against underdogs after coming off a close loss as a big underdog the previous week (CSU lost by just 5 at home to Utah State). The Rams have still lost by an average of 19 points in Hill’s 3 starts (average line of +15).
I can certainly see a back-door cover against a bad Air Force pass defense but the Falcons appear to be the right side.
Rush
-
Run Plays
30.5
36.3
-
Run Yards
108.7
206.6
-
YPRP
4.1
6.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
25.5
16.7
-
Pass Att
42.6
26.1
-
Comp %
59.8%
64.1%
-
Pass Yards
291.8
244.9
-
Sacks
2.5
1.8
-
Sack Yards
16.5
10.7
-
Sack %
5.4%
6.5%
-
Pass Plays
45.0
27.9
-
Net Pass Yards
275.4
234.2
-
YPPP
6.1
8.4
Total
-
Total Plays
75.5
64.2
-
Total Yards
400.6
451.6
-
YPPL
5.3
7.0
TO
-
Int
1.3
0.6
-
Int %
3.0%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.8
1.0
Rush
-
Run Plays
57.4
32.4
-
Run Yards
277.1
123.8
-
YPRP
4.9
4.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
7.7
16.5
-
Pass Att
13.8
26.6
-
Comp %
55.9%
61.7%
-
Pass Yards
135.9
231.9
-
Sacks
0.7
1.6
-
Sack Yards
4.8
12.4
-
Sack %
5.0%
5.8%
-
Pass Plays
14.6
28.3
-
Net Pass Yards
131.1
219.6
-
YPPP
9.0
7.8
Total
-
Total Plays
71.9
60.6
-
Total Yards
413.0
355.7
-
YPPL
5.7
5.9
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.5
-
Int %
3.3%
1.7%
-
Fumbles
0.9
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.1
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/25/18 Hawaii |
34-43 |
-14.5
L
|
25/35 |
116/198 |
4.6/5.7 |
0/1 |
34/26 |
50/37 |
530/415 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
10.6/10.9 |
646/613 |
8.6/8.4 |
| 08/31/18 Colorado |
13-45 |
+7.5
L
|
36/37 |
119/280 |
3.3/7.6 |
0/1 |
19/22 |
37/25 |
165/340 |
1/1 |
3/0 |
4.1/13.6 |
284/620 |
3.7/10.0 |
| 09/08/18 Arkansas |
34-27 |
+14.0
W
|
22/50 |
51/318 |
2.3/6.4 |
1/0 |
32/11 |
50/22 |
385/120 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
7.5/5.0 |
436/438 |
6.0/5.9 |
| 09/15/18 @ Florida |
10-48 |
+20.0
L
|
35/28 |
94/225 |
2.7/8.0 |
3/0 |
23/8 |
41/15 |
199/116 |
0/1 |
5/1 |
4.3/7.3 |
293/341 |
3.6/7.8 |
| 09/22/18 Illinois State |
19-35 |
0.0
L
|
29/42 |
149/267 |
5.1/6.4 |
0/0 |
24/14 |
44/29 |
242/271 |
2/0 |
2/0 |
5.3/9.3 |
391/538 |
5.2/7.6 |
| 10/06/18 @ San Jose St. |
42-30 |
-3.0
W
|
40/28 |
236/104 |
5.9/3.7 |
0/0 |
15/18 |
29/43 |
159/191 |
2/2 |
2/6 |
5.1/3.9 |
395/295 |
5.6/3.8 |
| 10/13/18 New Mexico |
20-18 |
-1.0
W
|
38/32 |
127/146 |
3.3/4.6 |
0/1 |
24/12 |
42/20 |
300/153 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
6.8/6.7 |
427/299 |
5.2/5.4 |
| 10/19/18 @ Boise St. |
28-56 |
+24.0
L
|
22/33 |
143/172 |
6.5/5.2 |
1/0 |
28/23 |
44/27 |
306/295 |
2/0 |
3/4 |
6.5/9.5 |
449/467 |
6.5/7.3 |
| 10/26/18 Wyoming |
21-34 |
+2.5
L
|
18/53 |
38/314 |
2.1/5.9 |
1/0 |
34/7 |
54/10 |
315/112 |
2/0 |
2/2 |
5.6/9.3 |
353/426 |
4.8/6.6 |
| 11/10/18 @ Nevada |
10-49 |
+13.0
L
|
28/33 |
93/226 |
3.3/6.8 |
0/1 |
23/28 |
40/35 |
144/394 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
3.2/10.9 |
237/620 |
3.2/9.0 |
| 11/17/18 Utah St. |
24-29 |
+28.0
W
|
42/28 |
211/141 |
5.0/5.0 |
0/1 |
24/15 |
37/24 |
284/169 |
2/0 |
2/0 |
7.3/7.0 |
495/310 |
6.1/6.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/18 Stony Brook |
38-0 |
-12.5
W
|
76/28 |
332/62 |
4.4/2.2 |
2/1 |
2/7 |
8/20 |
29/35 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
3.6/1.6 |
361/97 |
4.3/1.9 |
| 09/08/18 @ Florida Atl. |
27-33 |
+9.0
W
|
55/26 |
214/73 |
3.9/2.8 |
0/1 |
8/33 |
13/40 |
160/463 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
11.4/11.0 |
374/536 |
5.4/7.9 |
| 09/22/18 @ Utah St. |
32-42 |
+10.0
T
|
83/21 |
333/141 |
4.0/6.7 |
1/2 |
11/26 |
21/38 |
139/338 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
6.0/8.7 |
472/479 |
4.5/8.0 |
| 09/29/18 Nevada |
25-28 |
-6.0
L
|
48/34 |
169/177 |
3.5/5.2 |
2/1 |
8/24 |
19/33 |
79/259 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
3.8/7.8 |
248/436 |
3.6/6.5 |
| 10/06/18 Navy |
35-7 |
+3.5
W
|
54/41 |
263/129 |
4.9/3.1 |
0/0 |
6/3 |
10/11 |
142/44 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
14.2/3.7 |
405/173 |
6.3/3.3 |
| 10/12/18 @ San Diego St. |
17-21 |
+10.5
W
|
50/31 |
216/112 |
4.3/3.6 |
0/0 |
8/9 |
17/25 |
62/186 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
3.6/6.9 |
278/298 |
4.1/5.1 |
| 10/19/18 @ UNLV |
41-35 |
-9.5
L
|
52/31 |
384/155 |
7.4/5.0 |
2/0 |
9/26 |
11/38 |
217/257 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
19.7/6.4 |
601/412 |
9.5/5.8 |
| 10/27/18 Boise St. |
38-48 |
+9.5
L
|
47/28 |
226/149 |
4.8/5.3 |
0/0 |
11/22 |
16/36 |
219/391 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
11.5/10.3 |
445/540 |
6.7/8.2 |
| 11/03/18 @ Army |
14-17 |
+6.5
W
|
35/58 |
125/243 |
3.6/4.2 |
0/0 |
12/3 |
22/5 |
197/44 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
9.0/8.8 |
322/287 |
5.6/4.6 |
| 11/10/18 New Mexico |
42-24 |
-13.5
W
|
67/31 |
473/163 |
7.1/5.3 |
3/1 |
5/13 |
6/18 |
145/143 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
24.2/6.2 |
618/306 |
8.5/5.7 |
| 11/17/18 @ Wyoming |
27-35 |
+2.5
L
|
64/27 |
366/94 |
5.7/3.5 |
0/1 |
5/15 |
9/29 |
53/255 |
2/0 |
0/1 |
5.9/8.5 |
419/349 |
5.7/6.1 |
Colorado St.
@ 
Air Force