Game Analysis
OREGON (-21.5) 40 Colorado 19
OREGON (-21.5) 40 Colorado 17 (if CU WR Nixon doesn’t play)
Colorado’s porous defense (7.0 yppl allowed) doesn’t stand much of a chance against Oregon’s attack but the Buffaloes have a good enough quarterback in Steven Montez to challenge an elite Ducks’ defense. My math model calls for this game to fall right around the number.
The question regarding this game is the availability of Colorado receivers Laviska Shenault and K.D. Nixon, who are both listed as questionable (as of Friday noon). Shenault has actually been mediocre so far this season, averaging 8.2 yards per target, but Nixon has averaged 11.6 YPT and his absence would really hurt the Buffs. If Nixon doesn’t play, I’d make this score 40-17.
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.8
35.6
-
Run Yards
120.7
148.4
-
YPRP
4.4
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.4
20.1
-
Pass Att
36.4
32.9
-
Comp %
61.6%
61.2%
-
Pass Yards
248.4
267.2
-
Sacks
2.7
2.0
-
Sack Yards
17.8
12.2
-
Sack %
6.9%
5.6%
-
Pass Plays
39.1
34.9
-
Net Pass Yards
230.7
255.1
-
YPPP
5.9
7.3
Total
-
Total Plays
70.9
70.5
-
Total Yards
369.1
415.7
-
YPPL
5.2
5.9
TO
-
Int
1.0
0.8
-
Int %
2.6%
2.3%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.5
35.4
-
Run Yards
162.2
158.1
-
YPRP
5.0
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.5
20.4
-
Pass Att
33.9
36.4
-
Comp %
60.5%
56.0%
-
Pass Yards
235.2
220.7
-
Sacks
1.9
2.2
-
Sack Yards
12.1
13.2
-
Sack %
5.2%
5.8%
-
Pass Plays
35.7
38.6
-
Net Pass Yards
223.1
207.5
-
YPPP
6.2
5.4
Total
-
Total Plays
70.2
74.0
-
Total Yards
397.4
378.8
-
YPPL
5.7
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.2
-
Int %
1.0%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.7
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/06/18 Arizona St. |
28-21 |
-2.5
W
|
42/36 |
170/157 |
4.0/4.4 |
0/0 |
24/12 |
33/18 |
328/211 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
9.9/10.6 |
498/368 |
6.6/6.6 |
| 10/13/18 @ USC |
20-31 |
+7.0
L
|
33/24 |
129/73 |
3.9/3.0 |
0/1 |
26/17 |
47/34 |
136/265 |
1/2 |
4/1 |
2.7/7.6 |
265/338 |
3.2/5.7 |
| 10/20/18 @ Washington |
13-27 |
+17.5
W
|
34/36 |
124/205 |
3.6/5.7 |
0/1 |
17/15 |
28/25 |
135/149 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
4.7/5.7 |
259/354 |
4.1/5.7 |
| 10/27/18 Oregon St. |
34-41 |
-24.0
L
|
34/39 |
229/166 |
6.7/4.3 |
0/0 |
24/34 |
39/54 |
308/295 |
0/1 |
2/6 |
7.5/4.9 |
537/461 |
7.2/4.7 |
| 11/02/18 @ Arizona |
34-42 |
+3.5
L
|
26/44 |
85/230 |
3.3/5.2 |
1/1 |
27/17 |
43/22 |
298/337 |
1/1 |
6/2 |
6.1/14.0 |
383/567 |
5.1/8.3 |
| 11/10/18 Washington St. |
7-31 |
+5.5
L
|
13/33 |
95/131 |
7.3/4.0 |
2/0 |
21/37 |
38/61 |
202/346 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
4.9/5.7 |
297/477 |
5.5/5.1 |
| 11/17/18 Utah |
7-30 |
+7.0
L
|
25/46 |
80/175 |
3.2/3.8 |
1/0 |
21/11 |
33/23 |
122/215 |
2/0 |
7/1 |
3.1/9.0 |
202/390 |
3.1/5.6 |
| 11/24/18 @ California |
21-33 |
+12.5
W
|
38/32 |
151/113 |
4.0/3.5 |
2/0 |
16/14 |
33/26 |
163/104 |
3/0 |
3/3 |
4.5/3.6 |
314/217 |
4.2/3.6 |
| 08/30/19 Colorado St. |
52-31 |
-13.5
W
|
40/27 |
243/164 |
6.1/6.1 |
0/2 |
13/31 |
20/47 |
232/357 |
0/2 |
0/2 |
11.6/7.3 |
475/521 |
7.9/6.9 |
| 09/07/19 Nebraska |
34-31 |
+4.0
W
|
33/39 |
115/217 |
3.5/5.6 |
1/2 |
28/16 |
41/26 |
350/257 |
1/1 |
3/6 |
8.0/8.0 |
465/474 |
6.0/6.7 |
| 09/14/19 Air Force |
23-30 |
-4.0
L
|
28/51 |
125/293 |
4.5/5.7 |
0/2 |
26/7 |
43/12 |
204/155 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
4.5/12.9 |
329/448 |
4.5/7.1 |
| 09/21/19 @ Arizona St. |
34-31 |
+7.5
W
|
39/26 |
139/115 |
3.6/4.4 |
1/0 |
23/24 |
30/39 |
337/339 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
11.2/8.5 |
476/454 |
6.9/6.9 |
| 10/05/19 Arizona |
30-35 |
-2.5
L
|
37/25 |
159/84 |
4.3/3.4 |
0/0 |
29/31 |
43/41 |
337/404 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
7.8/9.9 |
496/488 |
6.2/7.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 10/13/18 Washington |
30-27 |
+3.5
W
|
47/43 |
186/201 |
4.0/4.7 |
1/0 |
18/15 |
32/25 |
193/240 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
5.7/9.2 |
379/441 |
4.7/6.4 |
| 10/20/18 @ Washington St. |
20-34 |
+2.0
L
|
20/20 |
81/94 |
4.1/4.7 |
0/0 |
25/39 |
44/51 |
254/323 |
0/2 |
3/0 |
5.4/6.3 |
335/417 |
5.0/5.9 |
| 10/27/18 @ Arizona |
15-44 |
-9.5
L
|
21/49 |
95/286 |
4.5/5.8 |
2/0 |
24/19 |
48/33 |
177/180 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
3.6/5.3 |
272/466 |
3.9/5.6 |
| 11/03/18 UCLA |
42-21 |
-10.5
W
|
42/37 |
200/228 |
4.8/6.2 |
0/2 |
18/22 |
32/48 |
264/272 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
8.3/5.6 |
464/500 |
6.3/5.8 |
| 11/10/18 @ Utah |
25-32 |
+3.5
L
|
28/45 |
137/252 |
4.9/5.6 |
1/0 |
20/18 |
33/31 |
259/253 |
0/0 |
4/1 |
7.0/7.9 |
396/505 |
6.1/6.6 |
| 11/17/18 Arizona St. |
31-29 |
-3.5
L
|
38/37 |
207/168 |
5.4/4.5 |
2/1 |
19/15 |
34/32 |
255/158 |
2/0 |
1/4 |
7.3/4.4 |
462/326 |
6.3/4.5 |
| 11/23/18 @ Oregon St. |
55-15 |
-19.0
W
|
60/26 |
416/81 |
6.9/3.1 |
0/1 |
10/21 |
14/39 |
100/242 |
0/3 |
2/2 |
6.3/5.9 |
516/323 |
6.8/4.8 |
| 12/31/18 Michigan St. |
7-6 |
-2.0
L
|
22/42 |
68/181 |
3.1/4.3 |
0/0 |
19/22 |
33/40 |
152/150 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
4.3/3.4 |
220/331 |
3.9/3.8 |
| 08/31/19 Auburn |
21-27 |
+3.5
L
|
29/41 |
122/217 |
4.2/5.3 |
1/0 |
28/13 |
37/31 |
220/169 |
0/2 |
3/1 |
5.5/5.3 |
342/386 |
5.0/5.3 |
| 09/07/19 Nevada |
77-6 |
-24.0
W
|
38/34 |
223/122 |
5.9/3.6 |
1/2 |
27/16 |
35/28 |
400/84 |
0/2 |
1/5 |
11.1/2.5 |
623/206 |
8.4/3.1 |
| 09/14/19 Montana |
35-3 |
0.0
W
|
38/17 |
247/28 |
6.5/1.6 |
0/0 |
30/24 |
42/43 |
316/214 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
7.5/4.6 |
563/242 |
7.0/3.8 |
| 09/21/19 @ Stanford |
21-6 |
-10.5
W
|
26/28 |
86/140 |
3.3/5.0 |
0/0 |
19/16 |
24/30 |
234/94 |
0/1 |
4/5 |
8.4/2.7 |
320/234 |
5.9/3.7 |
| 10/05/19 California |
17-7 |
-20.0
L
|
38/25 |
201/108 |
5.3/4.3 |
2/0 |
20/17 |
33/34 |
208/161 |
1/2 |
1/4 |
6.1/4.2 |
409/269 |
5.7/4.3 |
Colorado
@ 