Game Analysis

Colorado (-3 ½)  36   Colorado State  32

The line on this game has gone from 6 points down to 3 ½ points due to Colorado State’s 58-27 win over Oregon State was certainly impressive but being +3 in turnover margin made that margin a lot larger than it should have been. My preseason ratings also favored Colorado by 6 points in this game but I now favor the Rams by 4 points after adjusting my numbers for last week’s game. Colorado won’t be as good as they were last season but the Buffaloes will still be a good team with a solid defense and a potentially explosive aerial attack led by quarterback sophomore Steven Montez, who posted much better numbers last season on his 148 pass plays (6.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB) than veteran Selo Liufau did (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp). Montez took more chances throwing the ball down the field (13.0 yards per completion) than Liufau did (11.7 ypc) and Montez should post even better numbers with his entire receiving corps returning along with 4 of 5 offensive linemen. Colorado State has a worse than average pass defense so the Buffaloes should be able to score a good number of points. However, CSU could easily win this game if their attack continues to play at the level they’ve played since the middle of last season. I’ll pass.