Game Analysis

ARIZONA (-3)  27   Colorado  24 (no Shenault Jr. for CU)

Note: Laviska Shenault Jr. is OUT for Colorado.

This game hinges on the availability of Colorado WR Laviska Shenault Jr., who was leading the nation in catches and receiving yards when he was injured a few weeks ago. Shenault has caught 60 of the 73 passes thrown to him while averaging 10.7 yards per target. The other 4 Colorado receivers combine to average a modest 7.5 yards per target and that average has dropped in the two games that their star has missed since now the double-teams are focused elsewhere.

Colorado is still every bit as good as Arizona even without Shenault Jr, and the Buffs are clearly the better team if their star receiver is healthy enough to perform as close to his normal level. Arizona is just 0.3 yards per play better than an average FBS team, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and just 0.2 yppl better than average defensively. Colorado, meanwhile, has been 0.3 yppl better than average offensively and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively through 8 games. Without Shenault Jr. the Buffs’ offense is worse than average but they’d still have a decent chance to win this game.

My guess is that Shenault Jr. will not play and I’d pass on this game in that case. I certainly like Colorado if Shenault is back but his level of play may not be as high as it was prior to his injury.