Game Analysis

San Jose State (-10)  29   Coastal Carolina  18

With Grayson McCall and Jarrett Guest both in the transfer portal, it looks like Ethan Vasko will get his fourth start. Vasko is a significant downgrade in the pass attack, as he’s been 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB) while the team was +0.8 yppp during the season. Vasko, however, is a good runner, as he added 257 yards on 33 runs in his 3 starts. Number 2 receiver Jared Brown has entered the transfer portal, but he had the lowest success rate (42.5%) of the wide receivers, aside from Tyson Mobley (30.8%), who is also in the portal. Those two combined to average 8.9 yards on 95 targets while the other 3 wide receivers combine to average 9.8 YPT on 156 targets. Coastal Carolina was 0.4 yppl better than average offensively for the season but I rate that unit at 0.6 yppl worse than average with Vasko at quarterback.

San Jose State’s defense is 0.2 yppl better than average overall but they are a bit worse than average defending the run (5.6 yprp allowed) and I expect the Chanticleers to run it more than they throw it with Vasko at quarterback. I project 319 yards at 5.0 yppl for Coastal Carolina.

San Jose State’s offense struggled early in the season against solid defensive teams but veteran quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and running back Kairee Robinson (7.2 ypr) put up big numbers against 6 worse than average defensive teams down the stretch (38.7 points per game). Overall, the Spartans were 0.6 yppl better than average offensively. Coastal Carolina was 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively for the season but they’re likely to be a bit worse in this game. The Chanticleers have two starters at linebacker in the transfer portal, and a backup defensive back. However, those 3 combined for 0 sacks, 6 tackles for loss and only 4 passes defended, which is not that significant (although the adjustment worked out to 0.8 points). It’s also possible that CB Juan Powell is still out (he missed the last two games but is on the depth chart as the starter) and his absence would be worth another point. I project 393 yards at 6.8 yppl for the Spartans in this game (I’m assuming he’ll play).

The math favors San Jose State by 12.2 points and 46.4 total points but I’ll call for an 11-point win due to big underdogs in bowl games historically doing better than expected – although that’s mostly when a power 5 conference team is a big favorite over a group of 5 conference team.