Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – JAMES MADISON (-14)  36   Coastal Carolina  17

Coastal Carolina isn’t nearly as good offensively without All-American QB Grayson McCall and the Chanticleers’ run-oriented offense is not likely to yield positive results against a James Madison defense that is among the best in the nation defending the run (just 99 yards and 3.5 yards per rushing play allowed) and is even better if you exclude the two games that All-American candidate LB Jailin Walker missed. JMU has allowed 5.7 yppl in the two games without Walker but just 4.6 yppl in their other 8 games while rating at 0.6 yppl better than average (their opponents in those games would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average FBS defense).

Last week’s 42-40 non-covering win over Georgia State was misleading given that the Panthers scored two touchdowns on fumble returns. I do rate Coastal Carolina’s backup quarterback as above average but the rushing attack will struggle and much of the Chanticleers’ offense is based on play-action passes, which aren’t going to be effective without a good rush attack.

The James Madison offense, meanwhile, has averaged 38.7 points in the 9 games with quarterback Todd Centeio and rates at 0.3 yppl better than average after adjusting for opposing defenses faced. That unit has scored 37 points or more in 7 of 9 games with Centeio at the helm and they should be around that number even in a game with fewer possessions (Coastal plays at a slow pace). The Chanticleers have a horrible defense that’s allowed 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense). I rate that unit at 0.8 yppl worse than average after adjusting for a negative outlier versus ODU and project James Madison to rack up 464 yards at 6.9 yppl in this game.

My math model favors James Madison by 18 points and the Dukes apply to a 63-15-1 ATS final game situation. This is also a huge game for JMU, who is not allowed to participate in the postseason in their first year at the FBS level. A win in this game would make them the regular season champion of the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference and this is basically their bowl game. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, will be heading onto the Sun Belt Championship game even if they lose this game, which they likely will.

James Madison is a Strong Opinion at -14 at -115 odds or better.