Game Analysis
Note: Vasko will not play for Coastal Carolina and Jarrett Guest has been upgraded from questionable to starting at QB. That makes Coastal’s offense much better. The Under Lean will be graded as a Lean.
Updated Prediction: Coastal Carolina (-1) 21 ARMY 17
Original Prediction: Lean – Under (42.5) – ARMY (+3) 18 Coastal Carolina 18
The Coastal Carolina offense got a boost this morning when it was announced that Jarrett Guest would play
Army’s offense, meanwhile, rates at 1.3 yppl worse than average and is projected to average only 4.7 yppl against a Coastal defense that’s been 0.3 yppl worse than average and defends the run relatively better than they defend the pass.
It’s meant to be pretty windy in West Point in the early afternoon, which should keep both teams running the ball and killing clock.
My math favors Coastal Carolina by 1.8 points (but they apply to an 26-71-3 ATS non-conference road favorite situation) and with only 36.2 total points.
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.0
31.2
-
Run Yards
172.9
162.7
-
YPRP
4.8
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.2
18.7
-
Pass Att
32.4
32.9
-
Comp %
65.4%
56.8%
-
Pass Yards
266.3
237.2
-
Sacks
1.9
2.2
-
Sack Yards
13.1
13.4
-
Sack %
5.5%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
34.3
35.1
-
Net Pass Yards
253.2
223.8
-
YPPP
7.4
6.4
Total
-
Total Plays
70.3
66.3
-
Total Yards
426.1
386.4
-
YPPL
6.1
5.8
TO
-
Int
0.9
0.9
-
Int %
2.7%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
44.1
36.8
-
Run Yards
192.9
214.4
-
YPRP
4.4
5.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
7.5
14.5
-
Pass Att
15.3
22.9
-
Comp %
49.2%
63.4%
-
Pass Yards
102.8
183.0
-
Sacks
1.6
1.5
-
Sack Yards
10.5
7.1
-
Sack %
9.7%
6.2%
-
Pass Plays
16.9
24.4
-
Net Pass Yards
92.3
175.9
-
YPPP
5.5
7.2
Total
-
Total Plays
61.0
61.1
-
Total Yards
285.1
390.3
-
YPPL
4.7
6.4
TO
-
Int
1.3
0.6
-
Int %
8.2%
2.8%
-
Fumbles
1.1
0.4
-
Turnovers
2.4
1.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 @ UCLA |
13-27 |
+14.5
W
|
30/28 |
84/161 |
2.8/5.8 |
1/0 |
28/17 |
43/29 |
261/260 |
2/3 |
4/1 |
5.6/8.7 |
345/421 |
4.5/7.3 |
09/09/23 Jacksonville State |
30-16 |
-13.0
W
|
39/41 |
170/217 |
4.4/5.3 |
0/1 |
21/16 |
29/28 |
240/176 |
0/0 |
3/4 |
7.5/5.5 |
410/393 |
5.8/5.4 |
09/16/23 Duquesne |
66-7 |
0.0
W
|
35/36 |
220/183 |
6.3/5.1 |
1/1 |
24/11 |
32/26 |
338/137 |
0/3 |
0/0 |
10.6/5.3 |
558/320 |
8.3/5.2 |
09/21/23 Georgia St. |
17-30 |
-6.5
L
|
22/41 |
128/207 |
5.8/5.0 |
0/1 |
26/15 |
42/26 |
274/185 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
6.1/6.9 |
402/392 |
6.0/5.8 |
09/30/23 @ Georgia Southern |
28-38 |
+6.5
L
|
29/21 |
176/127 |
6.1/6.0 |
0/0 |
22/34 |
39/56 |
289/312 |
4/0 |
1/2 |
7.2/5.4 |
465/439 |
6.7/5.6 |
10/10/23 @ Appalachian State |
27-24 |
+5.5
W
|
43/26 |
202/111 |
4.7/4.3 |
0/1 |
19/18 |
28/31 |
367/301 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
12.2/9.7 |
569/412 |
7.8/7.2 |
10/21/23 @ Arkansas St. |
27-17 |
-9.0
W
|
39/23 |
199/124 |
5.1/5.4 |
1/0 |
25/19 |
30/35 |
243/298 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
7.8/8.3 |
442/422 |
6.3/7.2 |
10/28/23 Marshall |
34-6 |
+3.0
W
|
36/23 |
160/104 |
4.4/4.5 |
1/1 |
15/24 |
22/45 |
282/259 |
1/3 |
0/3 |
12.8/5.4 |
442/363 |
7.6/5.1 |
11/04/23 @ Old Dominion |
28-24 |
-1.0
W
|
43/34 |
245/197 |
5.7/5.8 |
1/1 |
17/15 |
31/27 |
167/159 |
1/0 |
2/4 |
5.1/5.1 |
412/356 |
5.4/5.5 |
11/11/23 Texas State |
31-23 |
+2.5
W
|
43/44 |
192/216 |
4.5/4.9 |
0/0 |
18/10 |
28/19 |
156/64 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
5.4/2.8 |
348/280 |
4.8/4.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 @ UL Monroe |
13-17 |
-9.0
L
|
49/31 |
187/220 |
3.8/7.1 |
3/0 |
5/14 |
11/30 |
111/88 |
2/2 |
1/1 |
9.3/2.8 |
298/308 |
4.9/5.0 |
09/09/23 Delaware State |
57-0 |
0.0
W
|
43/32 |
292/72 |
6.8/2.3 |
1/2 |
11/20 |
15/34 |
238/209 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
15.9/5.8 |
530/281 |
9.1/4.1 |
09/15/23 @ UTSA |
37-29 |
+7.0
W
|
63/21 |
258/123 |
4.1/5.9 |
0/1 |
8/16 |
18/24 |
148/186 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
8.2/7.4 |
406/309 |
5.0/6.7 |
09/23/23 @ Syracuse |
16-29 |
+13.0
T
|
42/33 |
149/179 |
3.5/5.4 |
0/0 |
9/21 |
21/26 |
49/235 |
2/1 |
4/2 |
2.0/8.4 |
198/414 |
3.0/6.8 |
10/07/23 Boston College |
24-27 |
-3.0
L
|
33/58 |
151/316 |
4.6/5.4 |
1/0 |
10/4 |
13/9 |
109/62 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
8.4/5.6 |
260/378 |
5.7/5.5 |
10/14/23 Troy |
0-19 |
+5.5
L
|
44/39 |
213/222 |
4.8/5.7 |
3/1 |
9/10 |
18/21 |
39/215 |
1/0 |
6/0 |
1.6/10.2 |
252/437 |
3.7/7.3 |
10/21/23 @ LSU |
0-62 |
+32.5
L
|
42/32 |
158/166 |
3.8/5.2 |
1/0 |
7/18 |
15/27 |
87/363 |
3/0 |
1/1 |
5.4/13.0 |
245/529 |
4.2/8.8 |
10/28/23 Massachusetts |
14-21 |
-9.5
L
|
41/37 |
231/231 |
5.6/6.2 |
1/0 |
8/17 |
20/23 |
116/121 |
2/0 |
1/0 |
5.5/5.3 |
347/352 |
5.6/5.9 |
11/04/23 @ Air Force |
23-3 |
+17.5
W
|
49/38 |
217/167 |
4.4/4.4 |
0/4 |
4/10 |
9/24 |
40/89 |
0/2 |
0/2 |
4.4/3.4 |
257/256 |
4.4/4.0 |
11/11/23 Holy Cross |
17-14 |
0.0
W
|
39/43 |
196/258 |
5.0/6.0 |
0/1 |
4/16 |
6/23 |
79/137 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
13.2/4.9 |
275/395 |
6.1/5.6 |