Game Analysis

TEXAS (-13.5)  32   Clemson  14

Lean – Clemson Team Total Under (18.5)

Texas has been inconsistent offensively, but the Longhorns defense will dominate a Clemson offense that has struggled against better than average defensive teams again this season (now a 4-year pattern).

The Clemson offense was 0.7 yards per play better than average for the season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) but the Tigers continue to struggle against better than average defensive teams after dominating worse than average defensive teams earlier this season with superior talent. In 5 FBS games against average or worse defensive teams (all between week 2 and week 8) the Tigers averaged 8.2 yppl and were 2.0 yppl better than average relative to what those teams would allow to an average FBS offense. The thought was that their horrible opening day performance against a good Georgia defense was an anomaly but that has proven to not be the case, as the Tigers started to struggle offensively when facing good defensive teams in their most recent 5 games – averaging just 4.9 yppl against Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pitt, S Carolina, and SMU – teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average offense. In 7 games this season against better than average defensive teams (Georgia, Florida State are the others) Clemson has averaged only 5.1 yppl, which is just 0.1 yppl better than the 5.0 yppl that those teams would allow to an average FBS offense. The 34 points they scored in the ACC Championship game was a mirage, as the Tigers tallied just 319 yards at 4.4 yppl and were outplayed by 12.6 points from the line of scrimmage in that lucky win.

Clemson is a bully and they’re about to get bullied right back by a Texas defense that is the best in the nation. The Longhorns have yielded just 12.5 points on 252 total yards per game at 4.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. Clemson’s offense, given how mediocre they’ve been in 7 games against better than average defensive teams, is no better than the average offense that Texas has faced this season, and I don’t see the Tigers getting more than 14 points in this game. Only Georgia and Vanderbilt have managed to score more than 17 points against the Longhorns and Vandy surpassed 17 points with just 46 seconds remaining in the game against a prevent defense and had just 200 total yards for the game before that late scoring drive. Clemson will struggle to move the ball consistently against the nation’s best defense.

The Texas offense hasn’t been as good as expected this season, as they’ve been just 0.9 yppl better than average with QB Quinn Ewers in the game after being 1.4 yppl better than average last season. The Longhorns have averaged 6.1 yppl with Ewers behind center while facing teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack (weighted by how many snaps he had against each defense) and Clemson’s defense (playing on the road) rates the same as the average defense that Ewers faced this season. The Tigers defend the pass well, but they’ve been mediocre against the run (5.3 yprp allowed) and the Longhorns should be able to establish their run game (I project 6.1 yprp and 6.0 yppp for Texas).

Outland Trophy winner LT Kelvin Banks Jr missed most of the week 14 game and didn’t play in the SEC Championship game due to a sprained ankle. The Longhorns gave up 6 sacks without their All-American protecting Quin Ewers’ blindside, but my guess is that he’ll play. It’s been 3 full weeks since Banks sustained the injury and even a high ankle sprain would likely be healed enough for him to play – although he may not be 100%.

The math model would favor Texas by 14.4 points if I weighed all of Clemson’s offensive performances the same but the evidence that they are significantly worse against better than average defensive teams is strong and I’m willing to bet that the Tigers’ offense is no better than average when not facing bad defensive teams. An average offensive team is highly unlikely to score more than 17 points against this Texas defense.