Game Analysis

Clemson (-10.5)  34   Notre Dame  22

Clemson is a better team now than they were when they lost in overtime in South Bend 6 weeks ago. That fact that Trevor Lawrence didn’t play in that game is actually not that much of a difference maker, as backup D.J. Ulagalelei averaged 9.2 yards per pass play without an interception and wasn’t much different from Lawrence in his level of play in two starts. The difference for Clemson is on the defensive side of the ball, as the Tigers were without defensive stars Tyler Davis  and James Skalski. Clemson allowed an average of 27.3 points (in regulation) and 5.5 yards per play in the 3 games in which both of those players were out – not only giving up 33 to the Irish before losing in OT, but also allowing 4.9 yppl and 24.5 points per game to Syracuse and Boston College. Clemson has allowed an average of just 4.2 yppl (with their starters in) and 12.4 points per game in their other 7 games this season, including holding good offensive teams Miami and Virginia Tech to just 17 points and 10 points, respectively.

Clemson averaged 6.2 yppl in the first meeting against the Irish and I project 6.4 yppl for the Tigers in this game. Notre Dame, however, isn’t likely to come close to the 6.5 yppl they averaged against a wounded Clemson defense, as I project only 4.9 yppl for the Irish in this game. Overall, the math favors Clemson by 10 points but the Tigers tend to outplay their statistical projections by a few points per game over many seasons and they’re also 14-3 ATS in post-season games since 2012.