Game Analysis

LOUISVILLE (-2.5)  26   Clemson  23

Louisville has been better about 4 points better than Clemson this season but being without star running back Isaac Brown is a significant blow to the Cardinals’ offense. Brown has averaged 7.7 yards per rush against FBS opposition this season while the rest of the running backs have averaged just 5.0 ypr and Louisville’s offense is just average without Brown given the sub-par pass attack (5.8 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average team). Clemson’s defense has been just 0.5 yppl better than average this season but the Tigers have the edge in that matchup with Brown out.

Louisville’s defense also has the advantage, as the Cardinals have been 0.9 yppl better than average defensively – allowing just 4.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense – while Clemson has been 0.5 yppl better than average with QB Cade Klubnik in the game (he missed the SMU loss).

Brown is worth 3.1 points to the side and 2.7 points to the total and I get Louisville by 2.9 points and 48.7 total points. That’s not enough value to make a bet on this game.